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US ESG Investment-Grade Anleihen: Immer noch ein wichtiger Bestandteil von Fixed-Income-Portfolios
Investment-Grade-Anleihen (IG) sind zwar nicht so defensiv wie Treasuries, sie befinden sich aber in einer besseren Position als Nicht-IG-Papiere, wenn die Pandemie weitere Überraschungen bereithält. Daher gehen wir davon aus, dass IG-Anleihen für festverzinsliche Portfolios wichtig bleiben werden, und die jüngsten Tendenzen bei den Mittelzuflüssen deuten darauf hin, dass Anleger auch ein ESG-Overlay zu ihrem IG-Anleihenengagement hinzufügen möchten.
Ähnlich wie ein alternder Sportstar, der auf die Ersatzbank verbannt wird, scheinen Investment-Grade-Anleihen (IG), der Liebling der Anleger im Jahr 2020, ins Abseits geraten zu sein, da die Marktteilnehmer nach risikoreicheren Geschäften suchen. Dies macht aus einer Timing-Perspektive Sinn, da Q1 die Zeit ist, um Risiken einzugehen, und auch das wirtschaftliche Umfeld unterstützt einen solchen Ansatz.
Die US-Wirtschaft hält sich gut: Das BIP für das vierte Quartal 2020 lag bei 4 Prozent (mit dem Potenzial, nach oben revidiert zu werden) und der Composite ISM deutet auf eine Wiederbelebung der US-Wirtschaft im Januar hin. Die schwachen Beschäftigungszahlen haben dazu geführt, dass die neu an der Macht befindlichen Demokraten auf ein umfangreiches Ausgabenpaket gedrängt haben - ein echter Konjunkturanreger. Der wirtschaftliche Hintergrund scheint also sicherlich Vermögenswerte wie Hochzinsanleihen und Wandelanleihen zu begünstigen, die wir beide als Anlagethemen im „Q1 Bond Compass“ behandelt haben.
Davon abgesehen bleiben IG-Anleihen ein wesentlicher Bestandteil jedes festverzinslichen Portfolios. Das Umfeld mit höherem Wachstum, höherer Inflation und höheren Ausgaben ist eindeutig schlecht für Staatsanleihen und hat die Kurve der US-Staatsanleihen steiler werden lassen, trotz der laufenden Fed-Käufe. Es ist weit weniger schädlich für IG-Anleihen, wo ein stärkeres Wachstum zur Stärkung der Unternehmensbilanzen beitragen sollte.
Eine wichtige Frage ist, inwieweit es zu einer Spread-Kompression kommen kann, um einen weiteren Anstieg der US-Treasury-Renditen auszugleichen. Abbildung 1 zeigt die optionsbereinigten Spreads (OAS)1 im Vergleich zur Rendite 10-jähriger US-Staatsanleihen für jedes Jahr seit 2010. Die Grafik verdeutlicht, dass die Spreads zwar eng sind, sich aber in der Vergangenheit verengt haben. Dies ist typischerweise bei höheren Renditeniveaus der 10-jährigen Anleihen der Fall, und es sieht so aus, als ob die Spreads enger werden, wenn das Wachstum an Fahrt gewinnt und weitere Shutdowns unwahrscheinlicher werden, da sie durch höhere Treasury-Renditen und Verbesserungen der Anleihequalität unter Druck geraten.
Dieser zusätzliche Renditeanstieg gegenüber US-Treasuries ist ebenfalls ein wichtiger Aspekt. Der jüngste Ausverkauf bei US-Treasuries hat die Renditen des Bloomberg Barclays Corporate Bond Index auf fast 1,9 Prozent steigen lassen. Dies liegt über der Rendite des Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury: Long Index, der sich auf das 10+ jährige Segment der Treasury-Kurve konzentriert. Dieser Index mit langer Laufzeit hat eine Duration von fast 19 Jahren, was ihn mehr als doppelt so empfindlich gegenüber einem Anstieg der zugrunde liegenden Renditen macht.
Die zusätzliche Rendite bietet IG-Anlegern auch einen Schutz. Der Bloomberg Barclays All Treasury Index hat eine Rendite auf den schlechtesten Wert von 67 Basispunkten und eine Duration von fast 6,9 Jahren, was bedeutet, dass ein bescheidener Anstieg der Renditen um 10 Basispunkte die Renditen aus dem Kupon neutralisieren würde. Für eine US IG Unternehmensstrategie ist der erforderliche Renditeanstieg mehr als doppelt so hoch.2
Schließlich hat die Fed zwar ihre Käufe von Anleihen gestoppt, aber es wird angenommen, dass sie den SMCCF3 wieder öffnen würde, wenn sich die Liquiditätsbedingungen am Markt wieder verschlechtern. Obwohl IG-Anleihen also nicht so defensiv wie Treasuries sind, befinden sie sich in einer besseren Position als Non-Investment-Grade-Papiere, falls die Pandemie weitere Überraschungen bereithält.
ESG: Eine klare Verschiebung im Anlegerverhalten
Während wir erwarten, dass IG-Strategien ein wichtiger Bestandteil von Fixed-Income-Portfolios bleiben werden, gibt es Verschiebungen bei der Art der Strategien, die Anleger einsetzen können. Bei IG-Unternehmensanleihen hat sich der Wandel in Richtung ESG vollzogen. Abbildung 2 zeigt die Nettoströme der letzten 12 Monate für in der EMEA domizilierte Fixed-Income-ETFs, aufgeteilt nicht nur nach Fondstyp, sondern auch danach, ob sie ein ESG-Flag haben.4
Im europäischen IG-Anleihemarkt hat es eine klare Rotation weg von konventionellen Strategien und hin zu ESG gegeben. Die Verschiebung ist im USD-Markt weniger offensichtlich, wird aber wahrscheinlich an Fahrt gewinnen, wenn die Biden-Administration beginnt, die ESG-Agenda voranzutreiben. Strengere Klimabestimmungen und Forderungen nach ESG-Offenlegungen sollten sich als Weckruf für diejenigen erweisen, die immer noch daran zweifeln, dass ESG eine zunehmende Rolle in Anlagestrategien spielen wird. Fünf Schlüsselthemen, auf die sich die Biden-Administration unserer Meinung nach konzentrieren wird, finden Sie unter ESG und die Biden-Präsidentschaft.
Der Bloomberg SASB US Corporate ex Controversies Select Index erleichtert die Rotation weg von konventionellen Strategien und hin zu ESG. Der Index wurde mit dem doppelten Ziel optimiert, eine Allokation in erstklassige ESG-Emittenten vorzunehmen und gleichzeitig einen Index zu erstellen, der ähnliche Eigenschaften wie sein Mutterindex, der Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index, aufweist. Der Best-in-Class-Ansatz bei der Anleihen-Auswahl trug dazu bei, dass dieser ESG-Index seinen Mutterindex im Jahr 2020 um mehr als 80 Basispunkte übertraf. Ein geringeres Engagement in Sektoren wie Transport und Energie hat ebenfalls dazu beigetragen, die Volatilität zu reduzieren.
Wie man dieses Thema spielt:
Anleger, die Zugang zu US-Unternehmensanleihen mit einem Fokus auf ESG suchen, können dies über einen SPDR ETF tun. Um mehr über den ETF zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie zu sehen, folgen Sie bitte dem untenstehenden Link:
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows(Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 4 – 11 February 2021. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1Optionsbereinigte Spreads für den Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index
2Der Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index hat eine Rendite von 1,86 % und eine Laufzeit von fast 8,7 Jahren, was bedeutet, dass ein Anstieg von über 20 Basispunkten erforderlich wäre, um die Kapitalverluste der Anleihe durch den Kupon auszugleichen. Quelle: Bloomberg Finance
3Sekundärmarkt-Unternehmenskreditfazilität
4ESG-Flags sind von Bloomber
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