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Euro High Yield erweist sich als widerstandsfähig gegen die Folgen der Pandemie
Hochzinsemittenten sind in der Regel stärker vom wirtschaftlichen Wachstum abhängig, sodass ein Reflationsszenario die Anlageklasse relativ attraktiv macht. Und obwohl das Ausfallrisiko weiterhin größere Sorgen bereitet, sollten staatliche Unterstützungsprogramme und günstige Finanzierungsbedingungen helfen. Schließlich sind Hochzinsanleihen in diesem Jahr für Investoren auf der Suche nach Rendite im Vergleich zu Staatsanleihen und Investment-Grade-Anleihen günstig.
Der aktuelle Hintergrund für Euro High Yield
Die Märkte waren im Jahr 2021 bisher volatil. Die Aktien stiegen zunächst auf neue Höchststände, bevor ihnen der Höhenflug verging und sie diese Gewinne wieder einbüßten. Die schleichenden Betriebsschließungen infolge der steigenden COVID-19-Infektionen haben für ein schwaches Wirtschaftswachstum zu Beginn des Jahres gesorgt. Es ist nicht ganz das Sprungbrett, das der Markt erwartet hatte. Darüber hinaus hat die Marktvolatilität, größtenteils eine Folge der GameStop-Kausa, einige Marktteilnehmer möglicherweise dazu veranlasst, ihr Risikoengagement zu reduzieren.
Die Orthodoxie, dass 2021 das Jahr des Aufschwungs sein wird, wird wahrscheinlich weiterhin in Frage gestellt werden, aber die größere Kraft wirkt zur Unterstützung der Wirtschaft. Das Wachstum dürfte durch die niedrigen Notenbankzinsen und die anhaltenden Ankäufe von Vermögenswerten weiterhin gut gestützt werden. Hinzu kommen umfangreiche Fiskalpakete, die sich erst noch in der Gesamtnachfrage niederschlagen müssen. Darüber hinaus sollte die Einführung von Impfstoffen eine gewisse Wiederbelebung der Wirtschaft ermöglichen, was wiederum eine aufgestaute Verbrauchernachfrage freisetzen würde. Auch wenn die Wachstumsprognosen vom November 2020 jetzt optimistisch erscheinen mögen, bleibt eine deutliche wirtschaftliche Erholung im Jahr 2021 das wahrscheinlichste Szenario.
In diesem Zusammenhang favorisieren wir aus drei Gründen weiterhin europäische Hochzinsanleihen:
- Hochzinsemittenten sind in der Regel stärker vom Wachstum abhängig, sodass dieses Reflationsszenario die Anlageklasse relativ attraktiv macht. Bemerkenswert ist, dass sich Euro-Hochzinsanleihen während der Risikoschwankungen im Januar tatsächlich bemerkenswert gut gehalten haben. In diesem Zeitraum gab es nur einen Tag, an dem sich der optionsbereinigte Spread auf den Bloomberg Barclays Liquidity Screened Euro High Yield Index trotz der starken Rückgänge an den Aktienmärkten weiter als Ende 2020 bewegte. Dies deutet auf einen zugrunde liegenden Appetit hin, die Anlageklasse bei jeder Preisschwäche zu kaufen. Diese Strategie könnte den Anlegern in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2020 gute Dienste geleistet haben, als sich Spread-Ausweitungen aufgrund von Konjunktursorgen in der Regel als kurzlebig erwiesen.
- Das Ausfallrisiko bleibt die große Angst der High Yield Anleger. Ein langsamer Start ins Jahr 2021 erhöht vermutlich diese Risiken, aber es gibt mehrere Gründe, warum dies kein normaler Kreditzyklus ist. Die Ausweitung staatlicher Unterstützungsprogramme, um Unternehmen durch die Krise zu helfen, in Verbindung mit günstigen Finanzierungsbedingungen, hat das Überleben der Unternehmen gestärkt. Bemerkenswert ist, dass sich das Tempo der Rating-Herabstufungen deutlich verlangsamt hat: Moody's stufte im Januar 2021 15 europäische Emittenten ohne Investment-Grade-Rating herab, während es im zweiten Quartal 2020 noch durchschnittlich mehr als 90 pro Monat waren.1 Auch der Bruttoabsatz dürfte geringer ausfallen als 2020, was zu einer günstigeren Dynamik zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage führt.
- Anleger werden 2021 wahrscheinlich nach renditeträchtigen Anlagen greifen. Die Renditen von Staatsanleihen sind im Euroraum negativ und bieten nur wenig Potenzial für Kapitalgewinne. Die Renditen von Investment-Grade-Anleihen sind ebenfalls niedrig, wobei die Spreads in der Nähe ihres engsten Niveaus der letzten zwei Jahre liegen. Hochzinsanleihen bieten nicht nur Rendite, sondern auch ein geringes Durationsrisiko im Vergleich zu Staatsanleihen. Der Bloomberg Barclays Liquidity Screened Euro High Yield Index bietet eine Rendite von etwa 2,5 % bei einer Duration von 3,25 Jahren gegenüber dem Bloomberg Barclays Euro-Aggregate Treasury Index mit einer Rendite von -15bp aber einer Duration von über 8,8 Jahren.2
Neun Jahre und ein gutes Gefühl
Am 3. Februar 2021 feierte der SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Bond UCITS ETF sein neunjähriges Bestehen. Seit seiner Auflegung hat der ETF eine annualisierte Rendite von fast 5,5 Prozent erwirtschaftet.3 Der Fonds hat in letzter Zeit weiter an Vermögenswerten zugelegt, mit Zuflüssen von rund 100 Millionen USD im bisherigen Jahresverlauf, wodurch die AuM auf über 1,1 Milliarden USD gestiegen sind. Die größere Dimension in Verbindung mit reger Sekundärmarktaktivität hat dazu geführt, dass die durchschnittliche Geld-Brief-Spanne des ETFs über fünf Tage auf nur 11 Basispunkte gesunken ist.4 Angesichts des konstruktiven Hintergrunds für Risikoanlagen und der anhaltenden Suche der Anleger nach Rendite erwarten wir, dass der SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Bond UCITS ETF ein wichtiger Baustein in den Anlegerportfolios bleiben wird, der die Gesamtrendite erhöht und dazu beiträgt, das Durationsrisiko zu begrenzen.
Wie man dieses Thema spielt:
Anleger, die sich in europäischen Hochzinsanleihen engagieren möchten, können dies über einen SPDR ETF tun. Um mehr über den ETF zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie zu sehen, folgen Sie bitte dem Link unten:
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows(Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 28 January – 4 February 2021. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1Quelle: Moody's und Bloomberg. Daten für Westeuropa ab 3. Februar 2021
2Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 3. Februar 2021.
3Quelle: State Street Global Advisors, Stand: 3. Februar 2021.
4Quelle: State Street Global Advisors, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 3. Februar 2021
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2015149.161.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 28/02/2022