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Schwellenländeranleihen: Harte Währung für harte Märkte

In einem schwierigen Umfeld für festverzinsliche Wertpapiere sind Schwellenländeranleihen ein Bereich, in dem Anleger ein gewisses Risiko eingehen können. Hohe Renditen und die Diversifizierung des Portfolios tragen dazu bei, dass dieses Engagement innerhalb der festverzinslichen Anlagen überzeugend ist. Angesichts der anhaltenden Stärke des US-Dollars ist ein Ansatz für Schwellenländeranleihen in harter Währung auf kurze Sicht jedoch sinnvoll.

18. Mai 2022

Das schwierige Umfeld für festverzinsliche Anleger bleibt bestehen. Zwei Themen im Q2 Bond Compass drehten sich um defensive Positionen - kurze Duration und Schutz vor Inflation durch TIPS. Das dritte Thema befasste sich mit der Frage, wie man mit Schwellenländern (EM) ein gewisses Risiko eingehen kann. Lokale Märkte sind bei der Rückkehr zu einer normaleren Politik weiter als die entwickelten Märkte. Gewissheit schufen dabei die hohen Renditen, günstige Engagements in lokaler Währung und die Tatsache, dass viele Zentralbanken der Schwellenländer ihre Politik bereits gestrafft hatten, um die Inflation zu bekämpfen.

Der USD widersetzt sich jedoch weiterhin der Schwerkraft, was die Performance von Anleihen in Landeswährung erheblich beeinträchtigt hat. Für den JP Morgan EM GBI Global Diversified Index beispielsweise betrug die Währungsrendite in diesem Quartal bisher -4,6 Prozent gegenüber -3,2 Prozent für die Kursrendite.¹

Für Anleger, die keinen unmittelbaren Katalysator für einen schwächeren USD sehen, kann ein Engagement in EM-Anleihen in Hartwährung eine Alternative sein, um die Rendite zu erhöhen und das Portfolio zu diversifizieren. Der SPDR® ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond UCITS ETF hat mehrere Vorteile:

Defensive Laufzeit-Positionierung: Aufgrund von Fälligkeitsbeschränkungen beträgt die optionsbereinigte Duration des ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index nur 2,55 Jahre.² Dies ist weniger als die Hälfte der Duration des JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index und sollte einen gewissen Schutz bieten, falls die Märkte einen weiteren Renditeanstieg erleben.
Historisch hohe Renditen: Trotz der kurzen Laufzeit dieser EM-Strategie ist sie mit einer Rendite von 5,68 Prozent im schlechtesten Fall sehr renditestark. Abgesehen von dem Anstieg der Renditen zu Beginn der COVID-Krise ist dies die höchste Rendite seit mehr als 10 Jahren (siehe Grafik unten). Die Spreads zu US-Treasuries haben sich ebenfalls auf 310 Basispunkte ausgeweitet. In den letzten 10 Jahren waren Renditen von über 300 Basispunkten nur selten zu beobachten und - abgesehen von der COVID-Krise - nur von kurzer Dauer.³
Diversität der Emittenten: Der ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index umfasst 58 Länderemittenten. Ein sich verschlechternder globaler Wachstumsausblick ist kein konstruktiver Hintergrund für EM-Schuldtitel. Die Emittenten mit dem schlechtesten Rating sind aber ausgeschlossen. Innerhalb des ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index sind nur 3,4 Prozent der Anleihen schlechter als Single B bewertet, gegenüber 6,5 Prozent beim JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index.⁴ Diese Streuung der Emittenten kann zur Portfoliodiversifizierung beitragen: Der ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index wies in den letzten 10 Jahren auf der Grundlage monatlicher Daten eine Korrelation von nur 12 Prozent zu US-Staatsanleihen auf. Das obwohl es sich um einen auf USD lautenden Vermögenswert handelt. Es ist auch erwähnenswert, dass viele Länder, die auf USD lautende Anleihen begeben, Rohstoffproduzenten sind und einen großen Teil ihrer Auslandseinnahmen in US-Dollar erhalten.

ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index: Rendite zum Schlechtesten und Spread zu Treasuries auf erhöhtem Niveau

Jeder Hinweis auf eine Entspannung der COVID-Situation in China könnte allmählich eine Rückkehr der Risikobereitschaft bewirken. Das könnte zu Zuflüssen in EM-Anleihen führen. Da die Inflation in den USA jedoch nach wie vor über den Erwartungen liegt und die US-Notenbank in vollem Straffungsmodus ist (und kurz davor steht, den Kurs ihrer Bilanzausweitung zu ändern), bestehen für die meisten festverzinslichen Engagements weiterhin sehr reale Risiken.

Anleger, die das Laufzeitrisiko niedrig halten und das Engagement in den Schwellenländern in Bezug auf Wechselkursschwankungen begrenzen, können eine relativ hohe Rendite mit weniger Risikoquellen als bei einem traditionellen Engagement in der Landeswährung erzielen. Für EUR-basierte Anleger, die sich mit einem USD-Engagement unwohl fühlen, gibt es auch die Möglichkeit einer EUR-abgesicherten Version des ETFs.

Wie man dieses Thema nutzen kann
Anleger, die Zugang zu EM-Schuldtiteln in harter Währung suchen, können dies mit SPDR ETFs tun. Um mehr über diese ETFs zu erfahren und die vollständige Performancehistorie einzusehen, klicken Sie bitte auf die nachstehenden Fondsnamen.

SPDR® ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)

SPDR® ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond EUR Hdg UCITS ETF (Acc)

Footnotes

Disclosures

Disclaimers

Marketing Communication.

Information Classification: General Access.

For professional clients use only.

For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.

For Investors in Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.

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