Die jüngste Underperformance von Schwellenländeraktien (EM) hat sie auf Bewertungsbasis relativ attraktiv erscheinen lassen. Und da die Schwellenländer ihre Impfprogramme beschleunigen, glauben wir, dass ein weiterer Aufschwung und Wachstum bevorstehen könnte. Wir haben gesehen, wie sich dieses Szenario in den entwickelten Märkten abgespielt hat und da die Schwellenländer einen besseren Zugang zu Impfstoffen erhalten, sollte dies ein Katalysator für die wirtschaftliche Erholung sein.
Schwellenländer-Performance steht vor einer Erholung
Die Schwellenländer (EM) verzeichneten zu Beginn dieses Jahres zunächst eine starke Performance.1 Diese Dynamik ließ jedoch schnell nach, als der USD aufgrund höherer US-Renditen und steigender Inflationsängste wieder an Wert gewann, was das Engagement aufgrund der hohen negativen Korrelation zum USD unter Druck setzte.
Mit Blick auf die zweite Jahreshälfte scheinen die Schwellenländer nun jedoch besonders gut für eine Erholung positioniert zu sein. Neben dem jüngsten Rückgang der US-Zinsen, der dazu beitragen dürfte, einen Teil des Aufwärtsdrucks vom USD zu nehmen, gibt es auch weitere strukturelle Trends, die den EM-Komplex unterstützen könnten.
Die jüngste Underperformance von EM-Aktien bedeutet, dass sie auf Bewertungsbasis relativ attraktiv erscheinen, insbesondere wenn man bedenkt, dass Analysten für die nächsten 12 Monate ein Wachstum des Gewinns pro Aktie von 36 Prozent erwarten.
Mehr Impfstoffe, mehr Erholung, mehr Wachstum
Während die Länder der Schwellenländer mit ihren Impfprogrammen nur langsam vorankommen, sollten sich diese Programme nun beschleunigen, da die Länder der entwickelten Märkte (DM) den Großteil ihrer Bevölkerung geimpft haben. Die DM-Länder hatten zuvor aggressiv Impfstoffe aufgekauft, so dass nur ein sehr geringes Angebot für Schwellenländer zur Verfügung stand, aber jetzt, wo die meisten DM-Länder ihre Vorräte aufgestockt haben, sollte der Nachfragedruck geringer sein. Außerdem hat das Angebot begonnen, die Nachfrage einzuholen, so dass es nicht mehr zu den extremen Engpässen kommt, die wir früher gesehen haben. Wir sollten daher erwarten, dass die Industriestaaten den Staffelstab des Wachstums an die Schwellenländer weiterreicht, wenn das Jahr fortschreitet und mehr EM-Länder mit der Wiedereröffnung beginnen können.
Dieses Szenario wird vielleicht nicht in unmittelbarer Zukunft eintreten, da es noch einige Zeit dauern dürfte, bis sich die Schwellenländer wirtschaftlich wirklich erholen. Aber Anleger, die glauben, dass die Schwellenländer vom gleichen Aufschwung profitieren können wie die Industrieländer, sollten sich frühzeitig in den Schwellenländern engagieren, um sicherzustellen, dass sie von diesem Trend profitieren.
Chinesische Aktien sehen auf Bewertungsbasis günstig aus
Innerhalb der Schwellenländer verdienen chinesische Aktien besondere Aufmerksamkeit, da sie im Vergleich zum Rest der Welt deutlich unter den langfristigen Durchschnittswerten gehandelt werden. Außerdem sind die Korrelationen chinesischer Aktien zu anderen Märkten in letzter Zeit gesunken, was bedeutet, dass sie als Diversifikator in einem Portfolio dienen können. Darüber hinaus könnten die jüngsten Strafmaßnahmen der chinesischen Regierung gegen Technologieunternehmen einen relativ attraktiven Einstiegspunkt bieten, vorausgesetzt, diese Unternehmen können sich von diesen Maßnahmen erholen.
Die Schwellenländer sind auch die am stärksten untergewichtete Region unter institutionellen Anlegern und haben sowohl auf Einmonats- als auch auf Dreimonatsbasis starke Zuflüsse verzeichnet.
Wie man diese Themen als Anleger spielt
Anleger können über den SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF auf diesen Schwellenmarkttrend zugreifen. Anleger, die ein Engagement in China anstreben, können dies über den SPDR MSCI EM Asia UCITS ETF in Erwägung ziehen, bei dem China derzeit 46 % des Portfolios ausmacht2. Um mehr über diese Fonds zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, klicken Sie bitte auf die unten stehenden Links:
Laufende rückwirkende 12-Monats-Exzessrendite des MSCI USA vs. MSCI EM und MSCI EM Asia
1 Quelle: Morningstar Direct, Stand: 30. Juni 2021.
2 Quelle: ssga.com, Stand: 8. Juli 2021.
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