Schwellenländeranleihen: Kampf gegen den Gegenwind des US-Dollars
Der kürzliche Anstieg bei den Renditen von Staatsanleihen und des US-Dollars hat die Anleihen der Schwellenländer (EM) erneut unter Druck gesetzt. Die längerfristigen Aussichten scheinen jedoch besser zu sein. Renditen für Schwellenländeranleihen bleiben im Vergleich zu den entwickelten Märkten attraktiv und die lokalen Währungen gegenüber dem US-Dollar sind wieder günstig.
Der Anstieg des US-Dollars, die restriktive Haltung der Zentralbanken und eine gewisse Risikoaversion haben dazu geführt, dass die Lokalwährungsanleihen der Schwellenländer (EM) unter Druck geraten sind. Betrachtet man den Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Index, so gab es nur wenige Länder, die im September positive Renditen erzielten: China, da sich die inländischen Wachstumsindikatoren verlangsamten, Indonesien, dank der bereits weiten Spreads zu Staatsanleihen und der relativ zahmen Inflation und Russland, da die Gaspreise in die Höhe schnellten und den Rubel stützten.
Es besteht die Befürchtung, dass das Zurückfahren der Ankäufe von Vermögenswerten durch die US-Notenbank (Fed) und letztlich steigende Zinsen, US-Dollar-Anlagen begünstigen und Kapitalflüsse in Schwellenländeranleihen einschränken könnten. Aus Sicht der Renditedifferenz haben sich die Spreads jedoch gegen den US-Dollar entwickelt. Die nachstehende Abbildung 1 zeigt die Differenz der Rendite zwischen dem Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Index und dem Bloomberg US Treasury Index. Die Spreads haben sich deutlich ausgeweitet und sind so hoch wie seit Ende 2016 nicht mehr (abgesehen von dem Anstieg der Spreads während der COVID-Krise). Angetrieben durch die Straffung der Politik der Zentralbanken der Schwellenländer lag der Spread Ende September nur fünf Basispunkte unter seinem Fünfjahresdurchschnitt.
Abbildung 1: Renditeabstände der Schwellenländer zu US-Treasuries haben sich vergrößert
Below we provide an overview of the different options investors have for gaining small cap exposure. Click through the ETF links to learn more about each fund, including full performance histories.
US Small Caps
The Russell 2000 Index allows investors to play cyclical recovery through higher exposure toward industrials and financials sectors relative to the S&P 500. Within financials, US small caps are naturally more oriented toward domestic, regional banks rather than global players. Heavy exposure to biotech affords investors a degree of structural growth as health care will likely remain in the spotlight even in the post-COVID world. The MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted Index is similar but with less health care and a higher cyclical and value tilt as financials represent more than a quarter of the overall exposure.
Broadly, European equities are supported by undemanding valuations, appealing spreads to local bonds and relatively solid COVID management across the continent. MSCI Europe Small Cap Index and MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted Index each have heavy exposure to the industrials sector, which could prosper from the next leg of the recovery, namely investment. Financial companies may benefit from yield expansion and are a significant component of these indices, while real estate has significant room to catch up with the broader market if the reopening continues.
The MSCI World Small Cap Index allows investors to gain global cyclical exposure, combining the specific merits of smaller companies across the US (59% of the index) and Europe (21%). However, there is more to the exposure as the global index provides access to Japan (11%), which is itself a cyclical, export-oriented economy. In addition, Canada and Australia (3.4% and 3.3%, respectively) provide access to economies that are benefitting from high commodity prices.1
Emerging market (EM) small caps were one of a few parts EM universe that actually performed in line with developed markets. The reason behind this performance lies in the composition of the MSCI EM Small Cap Index. China represents only 8.7% of the index while it is 34% for a broader MSCI EM Index.2 Instead, Taiwan, India and South Korea make up 59% of the strategy. This exposure allows investors to enjoy growth from developing economies while at the same time mitigating some of the regulatory risk associated with China.
1,2Source: FactSet, State Street Global Advisors, as of 30 September 2021.
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