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Unsere neue Sektor-Momentum-Map ist ein quantitatives Tool, mit dem Anleger die relative Entwicklung bestimmter Sektoren mit der US-amerikanischer, europäischer und weltweiter Benchmarks sowie Mitbewerbern vergleichen können. Damit ergänzt die Sektor-Momentum-Map die Fundamental- und Mittelflussdaten aus unserem Sector Compass.
Die Sektor-Momentum-Map wurde von RRG® Research (bekannt aus dem Bloomberg Terminal) entwickelt. Dank einer Kooperation zwischen State Street und RRG können nun auch SPDR-Kunden dieses Visualisierungstool nutzen, um Sektorrotationen grafisch zu analysieren.
Die Map zeigt die relative Stärke von Sektoren und deren Preisdynamik und liefert damit erste Anhaltspunkte für neue Chancen und Risiken. Anleger können auf Basis der grafischen Darstellung von Umschichtungen zwischen bevorzugten und weniger gefragten Sektoren Mittelflüsse von einem Sektor in einen anderen antizipieren und ihre Portfolios entsprechend anpassen. Der Vorteil, den die Sektor-Momentum-Map bietet, ist die sektorübergreifende Darstellung – übersichtlich dargestellt in nur einer Grafik.
Die Sektor-Momentum-Map arbeitet mit zwei Indikatoren relativer Stärke:
Die Sektoren rotieren in der Regel im Uhrzeigersinn um die Benchmark. Sektoren im Quadranten LEADING (oben rechts) sind führend. Sie befinden sich in einem relativen Aufwärtstrend gegenüber der Benchmark, der sich durch eine starke positive Dynamik weiter verstärkt. Bei diesen Sektoren ist von einer überdurchschnittlichen Entwicklung auszugehen, die für Anleger attraktiv sein könnte.
Beginnt ein Trend sich abzuschwächen, zeigt sich ein Verlust an Dynamik, der wiederum zur Rotation in den Quadranten WEAKENING führt. Die davon betroffenen Sektoren befinden sich nach wie vor in einem relativen Aufwärtstrend, der jedoch an Dynamik verliert. Eine solche Entwicklung kann von Anlegern als Risiko gesehen werden.
Hält die Schwäche an, rotiert der Sektor weiter in den Quadranten LAGGING. Sektoren in diesem Quadranten befinden sich in einem relativen Abwärtstrend gegenüber der Benchmark, der sich durch eine negative Dynamik weiter verstärkt. Hier ist davon auszugehen, dass die Sektorentwicklung hinter der der Benchmark zurückbleibt. Bei einer Verbesserung ändert sich zunächst die Dynamik, sie schlägt vom Negativen ins Positive. Der entsprechende Sektor rotiert dann in den Quadranten IMPROVING. Sektoren in diesem Quadranten befinden sich zwar weiterhin in einem relativen Abwärtstrend, doch die Dynamik verbessert sich, woraus sich für Anleger eine gute Einstiegsgelegenheit ergeben könnte.
Nimmt die Dynamik weiter zu, rotiert der Sektor schließlich zurück zu LEADING.
In der Regel verläuft die Rotation im Uhrzeigersinn, bei sehr starken Auf- oder Abwärtstrends kann die Rotation aber auch vollständig auf einer Seite bleiben. Bei einem sehr starken (und sicheren) Aufwärtstrend sind demnach Rotationen von LEADING zu WEAKENING und zurück zu LEADING möglich. Umgekehrt sind bei sehr starken (und sicheren) Abwärtstrends Rotationen von LAGGING zu IMPROVING und zurück zu LAGGING möglich.
Anhand von vier Parametern lässt sich die Sektor-Momentum-Map individualisieren:
Abbildung 1 zeigt die Tagesbewegungen von Sektoren, wobei die Tails die Bewegungsrichtung der vorangegangen zwei Wochen abbilden. Der Energiesektor sticht mit großer relativer Stärke und positiver (wenngleich abflachender) Dynamik heraus.
Abbildung 2 zeigt die Rotation europäischer Finanzwerte von Ende Oktober 2020 bis Anfang März 2021 in der Wochenansicht. Ausgangspunkt ist der Quadrant LAGGING. Im November vollzog der Sektor eine Wende von einer negativen hin zu einer positiven relativen Stärke und bewegte sich in den Quadranten IMPROVING. Wenige Wochen später rotierte er dank zunehmender relativer Stärke weiter in den Quadranten LEADING. Innerhalb dieses Quadranten schlug der Sektor schließlich eine Abwärtsbewegung ein, da die Dynamik über mehrere Wochen nachließ; der relative Aufwärtstrend hielt jedoch weiter an.
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