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Weekly Market Update

Signs of Restored Stock-Bond Balance

After a breakdown during the 2022 inflation spike, stock-bond correlation is approaching zero again—offering hope for a return to reliable diversification as market face growth and inflation headwinds.
5 min read
Head of North American Investment Strategy & Research
Senior Investment Strategist
Multi-Asset Trader
Investment Strategy & Research Specialist

Long term asset allocators rely on the diversification benefits of owning bonds during market dislocations, but bonds have not always delivered as of late.

As witnessed during the inflation spike of 2022, the stock-bond correlation broke down and became positive, ruining the coveted negative relationship. Excessive inflation is a headwind to both bonds and stocks. It puts upward pressure on bond yields, and as a result, tighter financial conditions can effect corporate profitability, creating conditions for a less favorable equity market. Bottom line—higher yields and lower equity prices can be ruinous for diversification.

There are implications to both economic growth and inflation stemming from the recently announced tariffs. Currently the market is more focused on growth concerns stemming from a slowdown in global trade, but higher inflationary impulses exist… and just when correlations started to approach 0.0.

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