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Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary: Q4 2024

Both EM local and hard currency bonds posted negative returns for Q4. The ongoing US dollar strength dented local bond returns, while hard currency debt losses were partially offset by the narrowing in spreads in the quarter.

Emerging market (EM) debt experienced a difficult start to the quarter, with investor risk appetite impacted by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and market uncertainty surrounding the potential outcome of the US elections and its potential spillover impact on long-term EM economic prospects. Markets found direction in November as former president Donald Trump emerged victorious and Republicans took control of the Senate. With Trump’s election campaign putting potential changes to tax, energy, trade and regulatory policies on the table, investor risk sentiment toward EM debt continued to be fragile. Geopolitical risks remained elevated in November as Ukraine launched long-range missiles into Russian territory, and Russia announced a new nuclear deterrence doctrine. Over the quarter, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates twice – by 25bps each time – to take the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25%-to-4.50%. The cautious tone from the Fed chair Jerome Powell in December prompted markets lower expectations on rate cuts in 2025, with no more than two cuts priced in. In emerging markets, major central banks’ monetary policy decisions are expected to be primarily driven by domestic inflation and growth factors, and to a lesser extent by the Fed’s rate cut dynamics.

Emerging markets hard currency sovereign spreads tightened significantly in Q4 and for 2024 as a whole, as reflected by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index. This was driven by the high yield component of the benchmark, which recorded a narrowing of spreads by 101 basis points in Q4 and by 142bps in 2024 to end the year 30bps lower than the 15-year average.

Chart of the Quarter: Evolution in EMD Hard Currency Spreads

Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary: Q4 2024

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