Events and news over the last few months seem to have pushed the market towards the provisional conclusion that economic growth will likely be less scarce over the coming years. As a result, the fundamentals of value stocks are looking much improved, and the premium ascribed to growth has diminished slightly. This move has been reinforced by a sense that it may be time to monitor inflationary expectations again, with the attendant consequences for rising interest rates. Both tend to weigh heavily on the net present value of future earnings.
The resulting rotation within equity markets has seen value enjoy a rare moment in the sun — outperforming growth significantly over the last few months (Figure 1). The key question is whether this will come to represent any more than a brief respite, as has been the case for most of the last decade. Or might this be the beginning of something more enduring?