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Weekly ETF Brief

Quality continues to offer investors an opportunity in US equities

Despite a persistent and significant overweight positioning to stocks with high quality factor exposure, we see an opportunity for investors to benefit from a Quality Aristocrats approach to achieving high-quality growth.

tempo di lettura 5 min
Senior Equity ETF Strategist

In the Q3 Investment Outlook of our latest Smart Beta Compass, we highlighted an opportunity in companies best positioned to weather economic uncertainty, protect margins, and navigate a high-cost-of-capital environment. While investor positioning to US equities has leaned towards high-quality stocks in recent history, we believe strong Q2 earnings outweigh the headwinds from slowing growth and tighter monetary policy.

The SPDR® S&P 500 Quality Aristocrats UCITS ETF (Acc) was highlighted because this fund comprises stocks with a strong track record of generating consistent free cash flow (FCF), with higher margins and return on invested capital (ROIC). In an environment of macro headwinds (slowing growth, constrained monetary policy) and micro tailwinds (strong earnings), a Quality Aristocrats approach provides a balanced mix of diversified defensive growth exposure for investors. 

Criteria for quality aristocrats stocks:

  • Consistent positive FCF: 10 years of consistent positive FCF
  • Sustained high FCF margins: FCF divided by revenue, averaged over the past five years  
  • Repeated high FCF ROIC: FCF divided by the sum of total shareholder equity and total debt, also averaged over the past five years 

We continue to see both strategic and tactical reasons to consider Quality Aristocrats based on historical analysis and current market dynamics, which suggest companies with strong financial health from a durable operating model are well-positioned for investors seeking calculated upside in this market.

From a strategic perspective, we would point to the historical performance of Quality Aristocrats across macroeconomic environments. Historically, the most significant outperformance in regimes of falling growth, including periods when inflation expectations were both rising and falling. The Quality Aristocrats approach has also shown defensive characteristics, with reduced annualised volatility, despite being an overall more concentrated index.1 In addition to a strong uninterrupted history of positive FCF, Quality Aristocrats are selected for their ability to generate high ROIC, which allows them to reinvest in the business creating a compounding effect over time.

From a tactical perspective, increased volatility may make Quality Aristocrats more attractive for investors. Companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and lower debt levels may offer protection as economic uncertainty rises.. Recent data on consumer sentiment and employment point to caution among US consumers, raising fresh questions around the theme of American exceptionalism. With growth expectations being revised down, cyclical sectors may be more vulnerable than Quality Aristocrats which are selected for higher FCF margins.

In summary, we continue to encourage investors to consider high quality US stocks as they may present a strategic and tactical case for portfolios. SPDR® Quality Aristocrats ETFs offer a systematic approach to identifying companies with a proven long-term track record of converting revenue into free cash flow.

Exposure to Quality Aristocrats with SPDR:

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