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Convertibles Tough Out Trump Mega Volatility

Investor nervousness over Donald Trump's tariff announcements has certainly not completely spared convertible bonds — but they have fulfilled their diversification and downside protection roles during the market shock.

Investor nervousness over Donald Trump's 2 April Liberation Day announcements regarding huge tariff hikes have not left convertible bonds untouched. However, this has been the perfect environment to show the role that convertible bonds play in a portfolio. Converts have fulfilled their downside protection role very well, falling by only 4.5% while global equity markets lost 11.1%.1

Convertibles remain a valuable tool for gaining exposure to equities but offer lower volatility. However, bond convexity did not work this time. Donald Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) leadership and independence, coupled with the unwinding of levered trades at the long end of the Treasury curve, led to the rise in long-term bond yields. . The 30-year Treasury yield rose from 4.42% on 4 April to 4.90% on Easter Monday (21 April). Convertibles exhibit relatively low sensitivity to interest rate risk, making them more attractive than both high yield bonds, where credit spreads widened sharply — and long-term bonds, which are highly sensitive to increases in long-term yields.

Month-to-date the drivers of performance have been varied, with German industrial company Rheinmetall AG contributing around 0.18% of the FTSE Qualified Global Convertible Bond index return, behind Microstrategy, which contributed 0.31%. Worst performers were Alibaba’s large bond (down 8.47%), which contributed to -0.25% to the month’s overall performance. JD.com was the second worst performer (down 8.25%) and contributing to a negative drag of 8 basis points (bps) at universe level.

The DPlay? Protection to the Downside

Figure 1 shows how convertible bonds have performed vs equity and fixed income indices, Investors should note the convexity that the conversion optionality provides versus the underlying equity index. On a year-to-date basis, converts in the FTSE qualified global convertible bond index have outperformed their underlying equity basket by almost 2% and 0.94% month to date, with a peak of outperformance on 8 April of 11.4% and 7.2% respectively. The protection provided in bursts of volatility is key with convertible bonds. It’s a feature that may offer resilience in an uncertain environment.

Main Risks and Supporting Factors for Convertible Bonds in Q2?

  • Market Capitalization: the global convertible bond universe consists of small and mid-caps for almost 50% of its exposure. These are more sensitive to economic growth setbacks and could suffer in recessionary scenarios. However, the market valuations of bonds by these issuers in the convertible bond universe are already low, limiting the risk of a further price pullback.
  • Credit risks: this would increase in the event of a recession. Credit spreads have already widened, which could complicate future refinancing. However, the default risk for convertible bond issuers is lower. From a ratings standpoint, they are more commonly in the crossover segment, unlike high yield issuers, which are all sub-investment grade.
  • Equity/bond drivers: the diversification of the market within the convertible bonds universe, with equity, mixed and bond profiles, makes it possible to always have a performance engine and therefore to navigate through the different market configurations (assuming one of either equities or bonds are doing well). In particular, any recovery in equity markets —against a backdrop of uncertainties on the trade war front and a shallow recession —would support the performance of the asset class.
  • Rising Coupons: a coupon rise is possible in a more stressed environment. The current yield on convertible bonds has already risen and currently stands at around 1.2%. This could rise further as converts issuers seek to attract new issue buyers.
  • Current valuations: valuations have come down, with the average delta of the FTSE Qualified Global Convertible Bond index at 43.5 (up from a low of 39 during the peak of volatility). This level of delta offers a defensive profile against a fall in equity market performance, while having low interest-rate sensitivity in case of rising Treasury yields should the disinflation trend stall.

Overall, the more balanced profile of convertibles may help investors to navigate what remains a positive backdrop for risk assets, given current macroeconomic data including earnings releases. However, ongoing headline volatility will keep market participants vigilant, and the convexity offered by convertible bonds may help deliver smoother performance, either within broad allocations or as a complement to higher-yielding exposures in fixed income portfolios.

Exposure to Convertible Bonds with SPDR:

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