Value is Back and This Time it Could be Here to Stay
Value stocks experienced another strong rally into year-end 2021, similar to the rally experienced one year prior.
The opportunity in value could persist throughout 2022 given the reflation trade is now driven on fundamentals as guided by Fed policy.
Investors could consider a selective approach to targeting strong value factor exposure by using the SPDR® MSCI USA Value UCITS ETF given the reflation trade is likely to be a volatile ride.
As markets opened 2022, much attention has been paid to the return of the reflation trade as value stocks experienced a strong rally in December 2021 (see Figure 1). This is quite similar to one year ago, when value stocks rallied significantly through year-end 2020 and into Q1 2021. Investors are now questioning how long the current reflation trade will persist. To answer this question, we believe investors need to focus on the key catalyst driving this year’s move compared to one year ago.
Figure 1: Brinson Attribution by Sector (Portfolio vs. Market Benchmark)
At the end of 2020, the reflation trade was driven by the news that the first COVID vaccines would become available in 2021. This drove value stocks higher – which had been heavily discounted during the initial stages of the pandemic – on the belief that economic activity would pick up in 2021. While this did occur, the economic recovery stagnated a bit in the second half of the year as the Delta and then Omicron variants threatened economic reflation.
What is different this time around? The Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has determined that the economic data suggests the reflation trade must go forward in 2022. The Fed has announced a clear plan to pursue a normalisation of interest rate policy (i.e. reducing bond purchases and increasing the Fed Funds Target Rate) in 2022. This action should benefit value stocks, relative to growth, as their valuations are less sensitive to discounting cash flows, which occur as long-term interest rates rise.
The last time the Fed engaged in such a plan of interest rate normalisation, in 2016, value stocks experienced a strong rally, as seen in the trailing 6-month returns of the MSCI Value Exposure Select Index (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Fed Funds Rate and Index Returns (Trailing 6-Month Returns)
In conclusion, we think Q1 2022 may provide investors with another opportunity to benefit from a rally in value stocks. We also believe the opportunity in value could sustain itself throughout the year, given the fundamental change in Fed policy expected in 2022. We would caution investors that this trade is unlikely to occur without volatility and thus we suggest investors use a selective approach to targeting strong value factor exposure, for example by using the SPDR® MSCI USA Value UCITS ETF.
How does an Exposure Select strategy help investors play Value while avoiding traps?
Investors using value strategies to take advantage of cheap stocks need protect their portfolios against stocks that are cheap for a reason. Value Exposure Select strategies such as the SPDR® MSCI USA Value UCITS ETF can allow investors to access strong value factor exposure, while seeking to avoid value traps, by using a light quality touch. To learn more about this ETF, and to view full performance history, please visit its fund page.
SPDR® ETFs offer a suite of Value Exposure Select strategies in World, USA and European exposures that track the MSCI Value Exposure Select family of indices.
Information Classification: General Access.
For professional clients use only.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
For Investors in Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
For Investors in France: This document does not constitute an offer or request to purchase shares in the Company. Any subscription for shares shall be made in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the complete Prospectus, the KIID, the addenda as well as the Company Supplements. These documents are available from the Company centralizing correspondent: State Street Banque S.A., Coeur Défense - Tour A - La Défense 4 33e étage 100, Esplanade du Général de Gaulle 92 931 Paris La Défense cedex France or on the French part of the site ssga.com/etfs. The Company is an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) governed by Irish law and accredited by the Central Bank of Ireland as a UCITS in accordance with European Regulations. European Directive no. 2014/91/EU dated 23 July 2014 on UCITS, as amended, established common rules pursuant to the cross-border marketing of UCITS with which they duly comply. This common base does not exclude differentiated implementation. This is why a European UCITS can be sold in France even though its activity does not comply with rules identical to those governing the approval of this type of product in France.The offering of these compartments has been notified to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in accordance with article L214-2-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code.
For Investors in Germany: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in accordance with section 312 of the German Investment Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectuses, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Telephone: +49 (0)89-55878-400. Facsimile: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 49934. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300.
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Accordingly, the Securities shall only be sold in Israel to an investor of the type listed in the First Schedule to the Israeli Securities Law, 1978, which has confirmed in writing that it falls within one of the categories listed therein (accompanied by external confirmation where this is required under ISA guidelines), that it is aware of the implications of being considered such an investor and consents thereto, and further that the Securities are being purchased for its own account and not for the purpose of re-sale or distribution.
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Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) in accordance with applicable Norwegian Securities Funds legislation. By virtue of a confirmation letter from the Financial Supervisory Authority dated 28 March 2013 (16 October 2013 for umbrella II) the Companies may market and sell their shares in Norway.
For Investors in Spain: State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) under no.1244 and no.1242. Before investing, investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing Memoranda, the fund rules or instruments of incorporation as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc from Cecabank, S.A. Alcalá 27, 28014 Madrid (Spain) who is the Spanish Representative, Paying Agent and distributor in Spain or at spdrs.com. The authorised Spanish distributor of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs is available on the website of the Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
Switzerland: The collective investment schemes referred to herein are collective investment schemes under Irish law. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstr. 19, 8027 Zurich, as well as from the main distributor in Switzerland, State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. Before investing please read the prospectus and the KIID, copies of which can be obtained from the Swiss representative, or at ssga.com.
United Kingdom: The Funds have been registered for distribution in the UK pursuant to the UK’s temporary permissions regime under regulation 62 of the Collective Investment Schemes (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. The Funds are directed at 'professional clients' in the UK (as defined in rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Funds, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
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IL EST POSSIBLE QUE LES SPDR ETF DE SSGA NE VOUS SOIENT PAS DISPONIBLES OU NE VOUS CONVIENNENT PAS. LES OPINIONS/INFORMATIONS PRÉSENTÉES SUR CE SITE NE SAURAIENT CONSTITUER UN CONSEIL EN INVESTISSEMENT OU UN CONSEIL D’ORDRE FINANCIER, JURIDIQUE, RÉGLEMENTAIRE, COMPTABLE OU FISCAL. EN CAS DE DOUTE, DEMANDEZ L'AVIS D'UN CONSEILLER INDÉPENDANT. LES INFORMATIONS ET OPINIONS PRÉSENTÉES SUR CE SITE NE SAURAIENT CONSTITUER UNE SOLLICITATION OU UNE OFFRE D’ACHAT OU DE VENTE DE PARTS DES FONDS OU DE TOUT AUTRE INSTRUMENT FINANCIER.
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Informations relatives au Mexique
Les informations figurant dans ce document ne constituent en aucun cas une offre de titres financiers et ne sauraient être considérées comme telles. Les Fonds mentionnés dans ce document ne sont et ne seront pas agréés en vertu de la Mexican Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores). Ils ne peuvent faire l’objet d’aucune offre publique, pas plus qu’ils ne peuvent être vendus sur le territoire des États-Unis d’Amérique. Il est interdit de distribuer publiquement les documents informatifs liés aux fonds susmentionnés sur le territoire du Mexique, tout comme il est interdit d’y échanger des parts des Fonds.
OPCVM SPDR ETFs
SPDR ETFs Europe I Plc et SSGA SPDR ETFs Europe II Plc émettent les ETF SPDR et sont une société d’investissement à capital variable et à compartiments assortis d’une responsabilité séparée. La Société est structurée comme un Organisme de placement collectif en valeurs mobilières (OPCVM) conformément à la législation irlandaise et agréée en qualité d’OPCVM par la Banque centrale d’Irlande.
Ce site web s'adresse uniquement aux investisseurs qualifiés, tels que définis par l'article 10 (3) et (3ter), de la loi suisse sur les placements collectifs de capitaux (« LPCC ») et son ordonnance d'application. Certains fonds peuvent ne pas être enregistrés pour la distribution publique auprès de l'Autorité fédérale de surveillance des marchés financiers (FINMA), qui agit en tant qu'autorité de surveillance en matière de fonds de placement, ou peuvent ne pas avoir désigné de représentant et d'agent payeur suisse. Pour les fonds qui ont désigné un représentant et un agent payeur, les investisseurs intéressés peuvent obtenir les prospectus, les statuts, les DICI ainsi que les derniers rapports annuels ou semestriels disponibles gratuitement auprès du représentant et agent payeur suisse, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, succursale de Zurich, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich, ou sur le site https://www.ssga.com, ainsi qu’auprès du distributeur principal en Suisse, State Street Global Advisors AG (« SSGA AG »), Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. Pour les fonds qui n'ont pas désigné de représentant ni d'agent payeur en Suisse, veuillez noter que les fonds sont ouverts aux investisseurs qualifiés, à l'exclusion des investisseurs qualifiés bénéficiant d'une clause d'exclusion (« opting-out ») conformément à l'art. 5(1) de la loi fédérale suisse sur les services financiers (« FinSA ») et sans aucune relation de gestion de portefeuille ou de conseil avec un intermédiaire financier conformément à l'article 10(3ter) de la LPCC (« Investisseurs Qualifiés Exclus »). Pour obtenir plus d'informations et les documents relatifs au fonds, veuillez contacter SSGA AG.
Vous devez vous procurer et lire le prospectus et le document d'information clé pour l'investisseur (DICI) de SPDR avant d’investir. Ils sont disponibles en cliquant ici. Ceux-ci comprennent des informations complémentaires concernant les fonds SPDR, y compris des informations relatives aux coûts, aux risques et où les fonds sont autorisés à la vente.
ETFs SPDR américains
La distribution des intérêts des ETF SPDR américains en Suisse sera exclusivement faite à des investisseurs qualifiés et s'adressera uniquement à ceux-ci, tels que définis par l'article 10(3) et (3ter), de la loi suisse sur les placements collectifs de capitaux (« LPCC ») et son ordonnance d'application. Par conséquent, les ETF SPDR américains ne sont pas enregistrés pour une distribution publique auprès de l'Autorité fédérale de surveillance des marchés financiers (« FINMA »). Certains fonds peuvent ne pas avoir désigné de représentant et d'agent payeur suisse. Pour les fonds avec un représentant et un agent payeur suisse, les investisseurs intéressés peuvent obtenir les documents juridiques liés aux ETFs SPDR américains gratuitement auprès du représentant et agent payeur suisse, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, succursale de Zurich, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich, ou sur le site https://www.ssga.com, ainsi qu’auprès du distributeur principal en Suisse, State Street Global Advisors AG (« SSGA AG »), Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. Pour les fonds sans représentant ni agent payeur suisse, veuillez noter que les fonds sont ouverts aux investisseurs qualifiés, à l'exclusion des investisseurs qualifiés ayant une clause d’exclusion (« opting-out ») conformément à l'art. 5(1) de la loi fédérale suisse sur les services financiers (« FinSA ») et sans relation de gestion de portefeuille ou de conseil avec un intermédiaire financier conformément à l'article 10 (3ter) de la LPCC (« Investisseurs Qualifiés Exclus »). Pour obtenir plus d'informations et les documents relatifs au fonds, veuillez contacter SSGA AG.
Avant d’investir, il convient d’analyser les objectifs d’investissement, les risques, les frais et les dépenses des fonds. Pour obtenir un prospectus contenant ces informations et d'autres, téléchargez le ici ou adressez-vous à votre conseiller financier. Lisez-le attentivement avant d'investir.