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Weekly ETF Brief

Five investment trends the summer has revealed

Contrary to the common view that summer market moves lack lasting significance, recent developments have pushed them to new highs despite tariffs blowing hot and cold on investors’ sentiment. From sovereign debt challenges to sectoral trends, the summer of 2025 may have uncovered several y enduring themes. As investors re-engage post-holiday, we highlight six key signals that we discussed in our summer publications that could shape positioning into the autumn.

5 min read
Head of ETF Strategy

1. Quality shines in US equities

Despite stretched valuations, Quality US equities continue to offer relative safety amid macro uncertainty. Historical analysis and current market dynamics, suggest companies with strong financial health from a durable operating model are well-positioned for investors seeking calculated upside. We detailed more here.

Exposure to Quality Aristocrats with SPDR:

2. Convertibles enjoying their moment in the sun

Convertibles have emerged as a sweet spot in fixed income, benefiting from equity upside and bond downside protection. Amid rate volatility and equity dispersion, convertibles have offered asymmetric return potential this year and are gaining traction in Q3 allocations.

Exposure to convertible bonds with SPDR:

3. The European small-cap surge

European stocks have surged this year, not least in the defence sector as Europe operated a step-change in military spending. European small caps stand out, having outperformed their US counterparts, buoyed by domestic fiscal stimulus, a supportive central bank, and attractive valuations. As we detailed in August, they offer a compelling diversification play, with less exposure to global trade tensions and more homegrown revenue.

Exposure to European small caps:

4. Q3 Bond Compass: front-end focus

Our Q3 Bond Compass highlighted opportunities as markets adapted to a post-tariff world. We detailed how Treasurys were pressured, particularly at the long end of the curve. US investment-grade credit (as well as emerging market debt) offered more from a risk/reward perspective.

Exposure to US corporate debt:

5. Q3 Equity Compass: pick up the transatlantic barbell 

Our quarterly Equity Sector Compass endorsed a growth and potential quality tilt with Technology companies while setting out that Utilities may downside protection and could continue to benefit from an AI energy hungry environment. Healthcare has been bruised but valuations are more affordable and the sector brings a defensive profile in more volatile markets.

Exposure to Technology:

Utilities:

Healthcare:

What next?

As we set out from the summer, the new “tariffed” world has somewhat challenged US exceptionalism, but not entirely. As we get ready to go back to school and navigate several weeks of political events, the horizon may still offer some glimmers of hopes that the soft-landing narrative carries on, and that some of the geopolitical tensions get resolved. We will miss the summer but there is plenty to look forward to.

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