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Dividendenaristokraten als Überleitung zu einer post-pandemischen Wirtschaft
- Der Anstieg der US-Aktien beschleunigte sich im November durch den gleich doppelten Stimulus von positiven Impfstoffnachrichten und Klarheit nach den Wahlen.
- Die Anleger kehrten in die angeschlagenen Sektoren zurück, während eine gesunde Skepsis hinsichtlich des Zeitpunkts und der Wirksamkeit der COVID-19-Gesundheitslösung vorsichtigen Optimismus nährt.
- Eine stabile Dividendenstrategie, wie z.B. der Dividend Aristocrats Index, der von SPDR-ETFs nachgebildet wird, bietet Anlegern eine überzeugende Gelegenheit, an der langfristigen Erholung teilzuhaben und sich gleichzeitig der kurzfristigen Herausforderungen bewusst zu bleiben.
Am 9. November 2020 gab Pfizer* bekannt, dass die Phase-3-Studien eines Impfstoffkandidaten, der zusammen mit der deutschen Biotech-Firma BioNTech* entwickelt wurde, eine über 90 prozentige Wirksamkeit bei der Prävention von COVID-19 aufweisen. Diese positive Nachricht erwies sich als ein bedeutender Wendepunkt in der Stimmung der Investoren. Seit dieser Ankündigung haben sowohl die Aktienmarktperformance als auch die Anlegerströme auf einen konstruktiveren Ausblick auf eine weltweite wirtschaftliche Erholung im Jahr 2021 hingedeutet. Während dies für die langfristigen Aussichten positiv ist, könnten kurzfristige Unsicherheiten bis zum Jahresende weiterhin zur Volatilität beitragen. Aus diesem Grund sollten Anleger einen Ansatz für stabile Dividenden in Betracht ziehen, wie z.B. die US-Dividendenaristokraten.
Im Monat November haben die US-Aktien die Erholung beschleunigt und den S&P® 500-Index um elf Prozent erhöht, so dass sich der Gesamtgewinn seit Jahresbeginn auf kumulative 14 Prozent beläuft. Dies ist ein beachtlicher Schritt, wenn man bedenkt, dass der Index am Ende des ersten Quartals um fast 20 Prozent gefallen ist. Zweifellos können wir einen Großteil dieser Beschleunigung im November auf die Nachrichten von Pfizer (und Moderna* usw.) über positive Fortschritte in Richtung eines COVID-19-Impfstoffs zurückführen.
Was jedoch bei der November-Rallye anders war, ist die Quelle des Aufschwungs. Seit dem Tiefpunkt des Marktes am 23. März 2020 war der Technologiesektor (+14,41%**) die treibende Kraft der Erholung, während der Finanz- und Energiesektor relativ rückständig war. Die November-Rallye stand auf einer breiten Basis. Allein in den zwei Wochen seit der Ankündigung von Pfizer stammten 59 Prozent der Marktrenditebeiträge aus dem Finanz- und Energiesektor - obwohl diese Sektoren nur ein Viertel des gesamten Indexengagements ausmachten. Dies hat viele Marktkommentatoren dazu veranlasst, die Frage zu stellen, ob es jetzt an der Zeit ist, beim zyklischen Werten "all in" zu gehen.
Neben der Dynamik der positiven Stimmung, die durch die Impfstoffnachrichten hervorgerufen wurde, erholen sich die US-Aktien auch von der Abwicklung der US-Wahlen und der daraus resultierenden Klarheit. Letzte Woche kündigte der designierte Präsident Biden seine Absicht an, die ehemalige Vorsitzende der US-Notenbank, Janet Yellen, für das Amt des nächsten US-Finanzministers zu nominieren. Wie die Impfstoffnachrichten wurde auch diese Ankündigung weitgehend als positiv für die Märkte aufgenommen. Ein von Yellen angeführtes Finanzministerium wird als unterstützend für US-Aktien angesehen, da sie einen koordinierten Ansatz zur Förderung einer akkommodierenden Politik unterstützen wird, während die Wirtschaft nach der Pandemie ihren Weg zur Erholung fortsetzt. Yellens mutmaßliche Nominierung könnte auch darauf hindeuten, dass die Biden-Regierung die derzeitige Ausrichtung der Federal Reserve unter Jerome Powell angesichts ihrer logischen Fortsetzung der unter dem früheren Yellen-Regime ergriffenen Maßnahmen positiv bewertet.
Trotz des doppelten Stimulus für die Marktstimmung durch die positive Entwicklung von Impfstoffen und die Erkenntnisse über wichtige Ernennungen sind die Aktienkurse nach wie vor anfällig für kurzfristige Rückschläge. Ein Impfstoff wird zugelassen, verteilt und verabreicht werden müssen, bevor große Gruppen von Menschen wieder in den Beruf zurückkehren können. Jeder Schritt bringt Herausforderungen mit sich, die wahrscheinlich zu anhaltender Unsicherheit führen werden. Insbesondere in den USA führt die Ausbreitung von COVID-19 nach wie vor zu beunruhigenden Messwerten und dies wird sich nach dem „Thanksgiving Fest“ wahrscheinlich noch verschlimmern, wenn sich die Menschen vermehrt in geschlossenen Räumen versammeln.
Zeitliche und verfahrenstechnische Risiken bestehen auch beim Regierungswechsel von der Trump- zur Biden-Administration. Der politische Übergang ist weniger schlimm als eine Pandemielösung, aber beide stellen für Investoren Risiken kurzfristiger Volatilität dar, was darauf hindeutet, dass der Handel mit zyklischen Werten "all in" eher etwas für das Jahr 2021 sein wird.
Eine Strategie für stabile Dividendenrenditen - wie der US Dividend Aristocrats Index - kombiniert die Möglichkeit, sowohl eine langfristige wirtschaftliche Erholung zu spielen als auch die Stabilität der Renditen zu nutzen, um sich vor kurzfristigen Volatilitätsspitzen zu schützen. Die Anleger beginnen, diesen Handel wieder aufzunehmen. Abbildung 1 zeigt, dass die Anleger wieder zu den Renditen zurückkehren, wobei sowohl die ETF-Ströme als auch die zugrunde liegenden Aktien betrachtet werden, wenn auch in einem vorsichtigen Tempo. Die Ströme in beide sind bis heute per Saldo immer noch negativ.
Wie man dieses Thema spielt:
SPDR bietet zwei ETFs an, über die Anleger Zugang zu den oben genannten Themen haben. Um mehr über diese ETFs zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, klicken Sie bitte auf die untenstehenden Links.
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 19-26 November 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter.
* Diese Information sollte nicht als Empfehlung angesehen werden, in einen bestimmten Sektor zu investieren oder ein bestimmtes Wertpapier zu kaufen oder verkaufen.
** Nominaler Beitrag.
1 Quelle: Pfizer Inc. Pfizer und BioNTech geben bekannt, dass der Impfstoffkandidat gegen COVID-19 in der ersten Zwischenanalyse der Phase-3-Studie am 9. November 2020 erfolgreich war. (Pressemitteilung).
2Quelle: State Street Global Advisors, FactSet, Stand: 30. Oktober 2020.
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2015149.154.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 30/11/2021