Are you sure you want to change languages?
The page you are visiting uses a different locale than your saved profile. Do you want to change your locale?
Europäische High Yield Anleihen hatten einen guten Sommer – Doch was nun?
Die europäischen High Yield Anleihen hatten einen starken Lauf und die risikoreichen Sommermonate ermöglichten weitere Gewinne. Doch nun ziehen einige dunklere Wolken am Horizont auf, da ein Wiederaufflammen der COVID-19-Pandemie die Wirtschaft aufs Neue bedroht.
Zwar sind die Renditen für Hochzinsanleihen seit Jahresbeginn nach wie vor negativ, gleichzeitig fiel die anfängliche Erholung nach dem Ausverkauf im März sehr stark aus und zog eine zweite Welle nach sich, die bis in den Juni hinein anzog. Die Sommermonate waren etwas langsamer, trotzdem liegen die Renditen des Bloomberg Barclays Liquidity Screened Euro High Yield Bond Index für die letzten drei Monate weiterhin konstant bei etwa 3%. Die drei Haupttreiber waren dabei:
- Die wirtschaftliche Erholung. Unterschiedliche Indikatoren deuten in den meisten Sektoren auf eine rasche Erholung hin. Beispielsweise sind viele der Umfragedaten weitgehend wieder auf Niveaus, die eine stabilere Wirtschaft implizieren.
- Ein risikoreicher Sommer, da die Aktienmärkte nach oben drückten. Das hat den Optimismus befeuert und Herabstufungen und Delinquenzrisiken für Hochzinsanleihen vermindert.
- Die Jagd nach Rendite. Da die Renditen europäischer Staatsanleihen weitgehend im negativen Bereich lagen und die Spreads für Investment-Grade-Anleihen (IG) auf den engsten Stand seit Februar gesunken waren, mussten sich festverzinsliche Anleger nach alternativen Ertragsquellen umsehen. High Yield bietet hier sowohl Nominalverzinsung als auch die Möglichkeit von Gewinnen.
Jetzt werfen das Wiederaufflammen von COVID-19 und Gespräche über neue regionale Lockdowns die Frage auf, inwieweit sich die Wirtschaftszahlen zukünftig weiter werden verbessern können. Diese Entwicklung könnte voraussichtlich als Gegenwind für eine weitere High Yield Performance wirken. Angesichts der Renditen von über 3,5%1 ist Kapitalzuwachs für Inhaber von High Yield Fonds jedoch weniger besorgniserregend.
Trotzdem sollte High Yield, solange sich die Risikobereitschaft stabilisiert, weiterhin eine gute Performance erzielen können. Wie Abbildung 1 zeigt, weist der Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Index eine hohe Korrelation mit dem S&P 500 auf, wodurch er klar in der Kategorie der Risikoanlagen angesiedelt ist. Seit März ist die Reaktion des Index auf einige der größeren Ausschläge bei Aktien begrenzt. In dieser Hinsicht könnte es hier ein gewisses Interesse von Marktteilnehmern geben, die wegen der jüngsten Instabilität bei Aktien begonnen haben, ihr Engagement zu reduzieren und stattdessen Hochzinsanleihen zu bevorzugen.
Abbildung 1: Zwar sind Hochzinsanleihen Risikoaktiva, jedoch waren sie bisher stabiler als Aktien
Wachstumstreiber - Rückkehr aus den ungeliebten Sektoren
Der Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Index ist in diesem Monat um weitere 0,5% gestiegen (Stand: 18. September), was größtenteils auf eine Erholung in Sektoren zurückzuführen ist, die weiterhin hinter der Performance des Gesamtindex zurückblieben. Die drei Sektoren mit der besten Performance waren zyklische Konsumgüter (+1,07%), Industriewerte (+0,93%) und Finanzwerte (+0,88%), also die drei Sektoren, die bis dato im Jahresvergleich um 3% oder mehr rückläufig waren. Zusammengenommen machen sie fast die Hälfte des Indexgewichts aus, was bedeutet, dass ihre Gewinne einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf den Gesamtindex hatten.
Dieses "Aufholspiel" wird besonders deutlich, wenn man die Indexrenditen nach Ratingbereichen aufteilt. Als die EZB ihre Kreditkäufe intensivierte, waren Investment-Grade-Anleihen die ersten, die sich erholten. Diese Entwicklung drängte Investoren auf der Suche nach Renditen zunächst in das höher bewertete Segment des Universums der Nicht-Investment-Grade-Papiere – und dann nach und nach in das Segment der niedriger bewerteten Papiere. In diesem Fall waren die höchsten Renditen im September mit 5,4% bzw. 9,6% bei CAA2- und CAA3-bewerteten Anleihen zu verzeichnen.
Solange sich keine Verschlechterung der Marktrisikobereitschaft abzeichnet, wird diese Konvergenz der Spreads wahrscheinlich ein Schlüsselfaktor für die Performance von High Yield Fonds bleiben. Obwohl bei Anleihen mit niedrigerem Rating ein höheres Ausfallrisiko eingepreist werden muss, liegt die Rendite bis zur Fälligkeit bei den Tranchen mit B3 und niedrigerem Rating bei über 6%, während sie beim höchsten Papier ohne Investment Grade, BA1, nur fast 2% erreicht. Da die Kursdifferenz zwischen dem Bloomberg Barclays Pan-Euro HY BB Rating Only und dem CCC Rating Only immer noch fast 50 Basispunkte über dem Durchschnitt der Jahre 2014 bis 2019 liegt, besteht noch Spielraum für eine weitere Verengung der Spreads.
Dunklere Wolken am Horizont
Nachdem die Sommermonate für Hochzinsanleger sehr freundlich ausgefallen sind, verdunkelt das Wiederaufflammen von COVID-19 die weiteren Aussichten. Es gibt jedoch mehrere Gründe, warum wir glauben, dass eine wesentliche Ausweitung der Spreads zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt nicht stattfindet:
- Im Gegensatz zur anfänglichen Herangehensweise beim Ausbruch der Pandemie versuchen die Regierungen jetzt, wirtschaftsweite Lockdowns zu vermeiden. Dies sollte die Auswirkungen auf die Unternehmen begrenzen.
- Viele der staatlichen Maßnahmen zur Unterstützung von Unternehmen und Wirtschaft wurden verlängert beziehungsweise ausgeweitet. Auch das Rekordniveau der High Yield Emissionen deutet darauf hin, dass die Unternehmen ihren Finanzierungsbedarf gesichert haben und sich in einer besseren Verfassung befinden dürften als im ersten Quartal 2020.
- Das Tempo der Rating-Herabstufungen ist im 3. Quartal 2020 stark zurückgegangen, wobei die Herabstufungen von S&P 26% des Niveaus von Q2 2020 betrugen und die von Moody's 29% . Auf den Nennwert gerechnet, deutet dies darauf hin, dass die Agenturen inzwischen weniger Bedenken hinsichtlich der finanziellen Stabilität haben. Es bedeutet auch, dass der Hochzinsmarkt weniger "Fallen Angels" zu absorbieren haben sollte.
Insgesamt dürften die Bedenken hinsichtlich COVID-19 in naher Zukunft vorerst nicht zurückgehen, was einen volatileren Hintergrund für High Yield Wertpapiere schaffen wird. Allerdings könnten ein robusterer Unternehmenssektor und die allgemeine Widerstandsfähigkeit, die High Yield bereits gegenüber früheren Phasen der Aktienvolatilität gezeigt hat, die Preisrisiken nach unten begrenzen. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass die Anleger nach wie vor auf der Suche nach festverzinslichen Renditen sind, könnte jede Rückkehr der Risikobereitschaft, wie wir sie im Juni 2020 erlebt haben, als eine Gelegenheit betrachtet werden, Vermögenswerte hinzuzufügen, die einen beständig starken Fluss von Kuponzahlungen liefern.
Wie man dieses Thema spielt:
Anleger, die Zugang zu europäischen Hochzinsanleihen suchen, können dies über einen SPDR-ETF tun. Um mehr über den ETF zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte dem Link unten:
SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
Flows
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., für den Zeitraum vom 9. bis 17. September 2020. Die Ströme sind zum angegebenen Datum und sollten danach nicht mehr als aktuell angesehen werden.
* This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector, or security therein, shown above.
1Quelle: Bloomberg Finance, Stand 18. September 2020
2Stand 22. September 2020
Marketing Communication. For Professional Client Use Only.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F+49 (0)89-55878-440.
Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
France: This document does not constitute an offer or request to purchase shares in the Companies. Any subscription for shares shall be ade in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the complete Prospectuses, the KIID, the addenda as well as the Companies’ Supplements. These documents are available from the Company centralising correspondent: State Street Banque S.A., 23-25 rue Delariviere- Lefoullon, 92064 Paris La Defense Cedex or on the French part of the site spdrs.com. The Companies re undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) governed by Irish law and accredited by the Central Bank of Ireland as a UCITS n accordance with European Regulations. European Directive no. 2014/91/ EU dated 23 July 2014 on UCITS, as amended, established common rules pursuant to the cross-border marketing of UCITS with which they duly comply. This common base does not exclude differentiated implementation. This is why a European UCITS can be sold in France even though its activity does not comply with rules identical to those governing the approval of this type of product in France. The offering of these compartments has been notified to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in accordance with article L214- 2-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code.
Germany: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in accordance with section 312 of the German Investment Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectuses, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semiannual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
Israel: No action has been taken or will be taken in Israel that would permit a public offering of the Securities or distribution of this sales brochure to the public in Israel. This sales brochure has not been approved by the Israel Securities Authority (the ‘ISA’).
Accordingly, the Securities shall only be sold in Israel to an investor of the type listed in the First Schedule to the Israeli Securities Law, 1978, which has confirmed in writing that it falls within one of the categories listed therein (accompanied by external confirmation where this is required under ISA guidelines), that it is aware of the implications of being considered such an investor and consents thereto, and further that the Securities are being purchased for its own account and not for the purpose of re-sale or distribution.
This sales brochure may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person other than those to whom copies have been sent.
Nothing in this sales brochure should be considered investment advice or investment marketing as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (“the Investment Advice Law”). Investors are encouraged to seek competent investment advice from a locally licensed investment advisor prior to making any investment. State Street is not licensed under the Investment Advice Law, nor does it carry the insurance as required of a licensee thereunder.
This sales brochure does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities other than the Securities offered hereby, nor does it constitute an offer to sell to or solicitation of an offer to buy from any person or persons in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful, or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so, or to a person or persons to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Italy: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) (“State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch is registered in Italy with company number 10495250960 - R.E.A. 2535585 and VAT number 10495250960, and its office is located at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milano, Italy. Telephone: (+39) 02 32066 100. Facsimile: (+39) 02 32066 155.
Netherlands: This communication is directed at qualified investors within the meaning of Section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act (Wet op het financieel toezicht) as amended. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Distribution of this document does not trigger a licence requirement for the Companies or SSGA in the Netherlands and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised over the Companies or SSGA by the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financiële Markten). The Companies have completed their notification to the Authority Financial Markets in the Netherlands in order to market their shares for sale to the public in the Netherlands and the Companies are, accordingly, investment institutions (beleggingsinstellingen) according to Section 2:72 Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act of Investment Institutions.
Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) in accordance with applicable Norwegian Securities Funds legislation. By virtue of a confirmation letter from the Financial Supervisory Authority dated 28 March 2013 (16 October 2013 for umbrella II) the Companies may market and sell their shares in Norway.
Spain: State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) under no.1244 and no.1242. Before investing, investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing Memoranda, the fund rules or instruments of incorporation as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc from Cecabank, S.A. Alcalá 27, 28014 Madrid (Spain) who is the Spanish Representative, Paying Agent and distributor in Spain or at spdrs.com. The authorised Spanish distributor of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs is available on the website of the Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
Switzerland: The collective investment schemes referred to herein are collective investment schemes under Irish law. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstr. 19, 8027 Zurich, as well as from the main distributor in Switzerland, State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. Before investing please read the prospectus and the KIID, copies of which can be obtained from the Swiss representative, or at ssga.com/etfs.
United Kingdom: The Companies are recognised schemes under Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“the Act”) and are directed at ‘professional clients’ in the UK (within the meaning of the rules of the Act) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Companies, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
Important Information
This document has been issued by State Street Global Advisors Ireland (“SSGA”), regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. Fax: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
SPDR ETFs is the exchange traded funds (“ETF”) platform of State Street Global Advisors and is comprised of funds that have been authorised by Central Bank of Ireland as open-ended UCITS investment companies.
State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I & II plc issue SPDR ETFs, and is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds. The Company is organised as an Undertaking for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities (UCITS) under the laws of Ireland and authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any investment. It does not take into account any investor’s or potential investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, risk appetite or investment horizon. If you require investment advice you should consult your tax and financial or other professional advisor. All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate in value, so that when shares are sold or redeemed, they may be worth more or less than when they were purchased. Although shares may be bought or sold on an exchange through any brokerage account, shares are not individually redeemable from the fund. Investors may acquire shares and tender them for redemption through the fund in large aggregations known as “creation units.” Please see the fund’s prospectus for more details.
The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
The views expressed in this material are the views of SPDR EMEA Strategy & Research through the period ending 11 September 2020 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
All forms of investments carry risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Such activities may not be suitable for everyone.
Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations.
Standard & Poor’s, S&P and SPDR are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
International Government bonds and corporate bonds generally have more moderate short-term price fluctuations than stocks, but provide lower potential long-term returns.
Investing in high yield fixed income securities, otherwise known as "junk bonds", is considered speculative and involves greater risk of loss of principal and interest than investing in investment grade fixed income securities. These Lower-quality debt securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss Regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
You should obtain and read the SPDR prospectus and relevant Key Investor Information Document (KIID) prior to investing, which may be obtained from spdrs.com. These include further details relating to the SPDR funds, including information relating to costs, risks and where the funds are authorised for sale.
© 2020 State Street Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
2015149.143.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 30/09/2021