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Nach der US-Präsidentschaftswahl: Positionierung für Aufschwung von US-Aktien
Es ist wahrscheinlich fast alles vorbei
Auch wenn der Grad der Unsicherheit im Zusammenhang mit den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen in den letzten Wochen zurückgegangen sein mag, gibt es immer noch viele Investoren, die es angesichts des Aufruhrs bei der Wahl 2016 vorgezogen haben, den Wahlkampf auszusitzen. Die Geschichte lehrt uns, dass die US-Aktien im Durchschnitt im Monat nach der Wahl steigen, auch wenn die Höhe des Anstiegs unterschiedlich war. In der nachstehenden Tabelle zeigen wir die Renditen der letzten 70 Jahre unter verschiedenen politischen Szenarien.
Durchschnittliche Leistung des S&P 500 nach der US-Präsidentschafswahl (1948 - 2017, kumulativ %)
Unter der Annahme eines unangefochtenen Wahlergebnisses und damit politischer Gewissheit sollten Anleger darauf achten, dass ihre US-Aktienbestände mindestens die erforderliche Gewichtung haben, zumal jede Ankündigung eines erfolgreichen Impfstoffs oder eines neuen Konjunkturpakets zu einem starken Aufschwung an den Märkten führen könnte.
Die USA bleiben unsere bevorzugte Region
Wir glauben, dass US-Aktien (im Vergleich zu anderen Regionen) in naher Zukunft weiterhin den sichersten Hafen bieten. US-Aktien werden durch die Ausrichtung auf die Unternehmensqualität, insbesondere die Bilanzstärke, unterstützt, was unserer Meinung nach im schwierigeren wirtschaftlichen Umfeld hilfreich ist. Auch der riesige Binnenmarkt und die diversifizierte Wirtschaft des Landes sowie die Zusammensetzung seiner Unternehmensstruktur bieten wichtige defensive Vorteile.
Die Beschäftigung in den USA hat sich weiter erholt, während die Verbraucher widerstandsfähig bleiben, wie der starke Verbrauchervertrauensindex und die positiven Einzelhandelsumsätze belegen. Die Geldpolitik bleibt entgegenkommend und obwohl zusätzliche fiskalische Anreize bisher enttäuschend waren, besteht weiterhin Optimismus, dass nach den Wahlen ein Paket vereinbart werden kann. Außerhalb der USA ist das Bild etwas uneinheitlicher.
Längerfristig sehen die US-Aktien weiterhin wie eine relativ attraktive Anlageklasse aus. Während der COVID-19-Krise haben sich strukturelle, technologische Trends verstärkt, von denen viele Branchen profitieren könnten. Es gibt aktuelleine angemessene Konjunkturschwäche in der Wirtschaft, was bedeutet, dass der Aufschwung in den nächsten Jahren schneller laufen könnte, als normalerweise zu erwarten wäre. Darüber hinaus besteht für Unternehmen die Möglichkeit, ihre Effizienz durch eine stärkere Abhängigkeit von der Technologie zu steigern.
Aus einer Bewertungsperspektive bieten historisch niedrige Anleiherenditen ein Polster gegen erhöhte Unsicherheit und ermöglichen Unternehmen einen leichteren Zugang zu Finanzierungen.
Die USA sind ein großes Land mit einer großen Auswahl
SPDR verfügt über eine breite Palette von Fonds, die ein Engagement in US-Aktien ermöglichen. Eine Auswahl kann aus den unterschiedlichsten Faktoren wie Size (Größe), Faktor, ESG und Sektoren getätigt werden. Hier stellen wir einige der Optionen vor:
Der wohl bekannteste Index: S&P 500
Der S&P 500 hat sich von den Tiefstständen im März kräftig erholt, aber die Stärke der Unternehmen, unterstützt durch die bereits erwähnten Faktoren, dürfte zu weiteren Kursgewinnen beitragen. Kurzfristig bevorzugt State Street Global Advisors Large-Cap-Aktien gegenüber Small-Cap-Aktien, da deren Qualitätsverzerrung und Performance durch die hohe Gewichtung von Technologieunternehmen begünstigt wird. Strukturelle Wachstumstrends, die von allen FAANGs bewertet werden, einschließlich derjenigen im Technologiebereich, sollten weiterhin die Ertrags- und Umsatzerwartungen vorantreiben, wobei die Dynamik und die makroökonomischen Faktoren dazu beitragen sollten, etwaige Bedenken hinsichtlich der Bewertungen auszugleichen.
Es wird in der Mitte gespielt: S&P 400
Der US-Index für mittelgroße Unternehmen weist ein viel größeres zyklisches Engagement auf als der S&P 500. Ein Beispiel dafür ist die 18-prozentig Gewichtung von Industrieunternehmen, in denen Ingenieure und Maschinenhersteller vertreten sind, die eine höhere Nachfrage nach jedem Steuerpaket für die physische Infrastruktur befriedigen könnten. Laut State Street Global Advisors können Mid-Cap-Aktien den Sweet Spot im Markt mit höherem Gewinnwachstum besetzen, obwohl sie mit einer höheren Volatilität einhergehen (wenn auch nicht so hoch wie bei Small Caps).
Näher an der Action: Russell 2000
Auf kurze Sicht hat eine Verbesserung der relativen Gesundheit der Bilanzen von Small-Cap-Unternehmen, wenn man die Betriebserträge im Vergleich zum freien Cash-Flow betrachtet, dazu beigetragen, dass der Russell 2000 attraktiver aussieht als zu Beginn der COVID-19-Krise. Mit Blick auf drei bis fünf Jahre prognostizieren wir für Small Caps höhere Renditen als für Large oder Mid Caps (6,1% gegenüber 5,6% für US Large Caps und 5,8% für Mid Caps); allerdings würden wir eine höhere Standardabweichung der Renditen erwarten. 1
Die Vorteile einer großen Streuung der Erträge in Sektoren nutzen
Sektoren sind oft eine unserer bevorzugten Anlagelösungen, und dies vor allem dann, wenn die durch die sektorinterne Streuung bedingte Volatilität hoch ist.
Jedes Wahlszenario hat unterschiedliche Auswirkungen auf jeden Sektor; eine vollständige Zusammenfassung finden Sie in unserem jüngsten Artikel. Einige dieser Implikationen können durchaus schon vor der Bekanntgabe des Wahlergebnisses eingepreist werden, aber das Tempo der neuen Gesetzgebung wird möglicherweise nicht den normalen Weg einschlagen, da es wichtig ist, zuerst die gesundheitlichen und damit verbundenen wirtschaftlichen Probleme anzugehen. Es wird Gelegenheiten für Überreaktionen geben, die wir nicht vorhersehen können.
Im Q4 Sector Compass berücksichtigen unsere „Sector Picks“ nicht nur die möglichen Auswirkungen der Wahl, sondern auch die Reaktion auf andere Wachstumstreiber im Markt und die mögliche Vermeidung bestimmter Risiken. Die Sektoren, die wir in Betracht gezogen haben, waren Versorgungsunternehmen mit ihren potenziellen Vorteilen durch erneuerbare Energien, das Gesundheitswesen angesichts der Nachfrage nach COVID-19-Behandlungen und der Technologie-Sektor angesichts seiner Bedeutung für die Erleichterung unseres Arbeits- und Soziallebens im aktuellen Umfeld.
Wie man diese Themen spielt:
SPDR bietet eine Reihe von ETFs an, die Anlegern den Zugang zu Engagements ermöglichen, die ihnen bei der Positionierung im Hinblick auf die US-Präsidentschaftswahlen helfen können. Um mehr über diese ETFs zu erfahren und die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte den untenstehenden Links:
European-Domicilied ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 22-29 October 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter.
1 Quelle: State Street Global Advisors, Stand: 30. September 2020.
Marketing Communication. For Professional Client Use Only.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F+49 (0)89-55878-440.
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2015149.148.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 31/01/2021