Are you sure you want to change languages?
The page you are visiting uses a different locale than your saved profile. Do you want to change your locale?
US Elections: Investing Amid Political Risk
Executive Summary
Polls suggest the general mood in the US is gloomy and the electorate disapproving Trump on many key election issues, according to RealClearPolitics. Media sentiment suggests that Trump is losing ground against Biden both in the entire country and in key swing states.
There is some evidence that sectors (particularly Tech) appear to be more sensitive around the election date than cap factors and smart beta.
Investors seem to position their portfolios cautiously before elections and only venture slowly back to equities afterwards.
Macro momentum, rather than the current state of the economy, is likely to be important in the election and Trump is currently trailing past re-election winners on key indicators.
Emerging Policy Themes for 2020 Presidential Election
Potential Outcomes
- Scenario A: Clean Democratic Sweep: We favour Fossil Fuel Free/ESG, Infrastructure, Health Care, dividends.
- Scenario B: Democratic President, Republican Senate: We favour Fossil Fuel Free/ESG, Infrastructure, dividends, Discretionary.
- Scenario C: A disputed Biden or Trump victory: We favour low volatility, Staples, Utilities.
- Scenario D: Trump is Re-Elected, Status Quo: We favour Infrastructure, Utilities, Oil & Gas, and mid/small caps.
Marketing communication
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
Abu Dhabi: State Street Global Advisors Limited, ADGM Branch, Al Khatem Tower, Suite 42801, Level 28, ADGM Square, Al Maryah Island, P.O. Box 764604, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) Regulated by ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority. T: +971 2 245 9000. F: +971 (0)4-4372818.
Australia: State Street Global Advisors, Australia, Limited (ABN 42 003 914 225) is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL Number 238276). Registered office: Level 14, 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia T: +612 9240-7600. F: +612 9240-7611.
Belgium: State Street Global Advisors Belgium, Chaussée de La Hulpe 120, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Telephone: 32 2 663 2036, Facsimile: 32 2 672 2077. SSGA Belgium is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited. State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2.
Canada: State Street Global Advisors, Ltd., 1981 McGill College Avenue, Suite 500 , Montreal, Quebec, H3A 3A8, T: +514 282 2400 and 30 Adelaide Street East Suite 800, Toronto, Ontario M5C 3G6. T: +647 775 5900.
France: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Paris Branch (“State Street Global Advisors Paris Branch”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Paris Branch is registered in France with company number RCS Nanterre 832 734 602, and its office is located at Immeuble Défense Plaza, 23-25 rue Delarivière-Lefoullon, 92064 Paris La Défense Cedex, France. Telephone: (+33) 1 44 45 40 00. Facsimile: (+33) 1 44 45 41 92.
Germany: State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Authorised and regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (“BaFin”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Munich HRB 121381. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
Hong Kong: State Street Global Advisors Asia Limited, 68/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong. T: +852 2103-0288. F: +852 2103-0200.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300.
Italy: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) (“State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Milan Branch is registered in Italy with company number 10495250960 - R.E.A. 2535585 and VAT number 10495250960, and its office is located at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milano, Italy. Telephone: (+39) 02 32066 100. Facsimile: (+39) 02 32066 155.
Netherlands: State Street Global Advisors Netherlands, Apollo Building, 7th floor Herikerbergweg 29 1101 CN Amsterdam, Netherlands. Telephone: 31 20 7181701. SSGA Netherlands is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2.
Singapore: State Street Global Advisors Singapore Limited, 168, Robinson Road, #33-01 Capital Tower, Singapore 068912 (Company Reg. No: 200002719D, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore). T: +65 6826-7555. F: +65 6826-7501.
Switzerland: State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstr. 19, CH-8027 Zurich. Registered with the Register of Commerce Zurich CHE-105.078.458. T: +41 (0)44 245 70 00. F: +41 (0)44 245 70 16.
United Kingdom: State Street Global Advisors Limited. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 2509928. VAT No. 5776591 81. Registered office: 20 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HJ. T: 020 3395 6000. F: 020 3395 6350.
United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor. All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
The views expressed in this material are the views of Daniel Ung through the period ended 1 September 2020 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
© 2020 State Street Corporation - All Rights Reserved.
3231074.1.1.GBL.RTL
Exp. Date: 30/09/2021