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Forecasts Q3 2020

Global Economic Outlook

  • The global economic growth outlook has been savaged by the impact of Covid-19 driven lockdowns. GDP will contract across the board in 2020, with few exceptions.
  • The deployment by central banks of major policy stimulus measures has been matched by considerable fiscal programs as governments place economic rejuvenation ahead of debt levels

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Covid-19 containment measures and the loss of economic activity means GDP in emerging countries as a whole will shrink
    by close to 2.0% in 2020, a steep drop from typical annual growth of over 4%.
  • China is a notable exception, with the country that was first impacted by the coronavirus outbreak likely to be the only large economy, developed or emerging, to record GDP growth this year.

Global Capital Markets

  • The progression of COVID-19 and the US Presidential Election will garner much of the headlines in the second half of 2020, but it is important not to underestimate the market structure and business models that differentiate equity markets around the world.
  • With the worst of the liquidity crisis healed by central bank accommodation, gold stands out as a useful diversifier for multiasset portfolios in a world beset by negative real interest rates, rising debt levels and potentially pivotal policy risks on the horizon.