Insights
Forecasts Quarter 1, 2021
Global Economic Outlook
- After an extraordinary contraction in 2020, the global economy will likely bounce back sharply in 2021 as vaccine rollout allows pent-up demand to materialize and supportive monetary and fiscal policies aid the recovery.
- The powerful cyclical recovery likely lifts inflation almost everywhere, but large output gaps will cap the rise.
Emerging Markets Outlook
- Emerging markets will benefit from improved global demand and the rebound in commodity prices, although the pace of recovery will vary greatly across countries.
- The COVID crisis likely accelerated shifts in global supply chains, but the full impact will take years to fully materialize.
Global Capital Markets
- Important forces across macroeconomic, political and public health dimensions continue to create tensions, but benign risk indicators and a mostly constructive outlook characterize our multi-asset portfolio positions.
- Despite losing some important support mechanisms alongside dramatically tightened credit spreads, credit assets across both investment grade and high yield markets remain attractive.