Two years after the start of the pandemic, the global economy is dealing with another exogenous shock. The Russia-Ukraine War should have an impact on the global economy via a rise in energy and commodity prices, a disruption in supply chains, a tightening of financial conditions and deterioration in business and consumer confidence, investments and consumption.
Economists and investment strategists have been active in adjusting forecasts for economic growth and capital markets since the beginning of the war. While forecasts are being made with a limited degree of confidence, it is clear that the duration of the conflict and resulting disruptions to supply chains (especially for energy and food) will be the ultimate determining factors.
