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        Forecasts Quarter 4 2022

        Simona M Mocuta
        Chief Economist
        Jeremiah Holly, CFA
        Portfolio Manager

        Global Economic Outlook

        • Global economic growth likely falls further below trend in 2023 as the aggressive monetary tightening weighs on activity and consumption.
        • Europe’s energy crisis and the strong dollar are but two of many challenges, while supply chain normalization and slowing demand suggest a disinflationary episode ahead.

        Emerging Markets Outlook

        • Sluggish Chinese growth weighs on EM growth performance in 2022, but improvement seems likely in 2023.
        • Uneven terms of trade shocks, strong dollar, and slowing global growth remain headwinds for emerging markets as a whole.

        Global Capital Markets

        • With the collapse of equity values in 2022, we are observing meaningful improvement from bottom-up drivers for equity markets. However, we remain cautious given still-elevated risk regimes.
        • The outlook for commodities is more balanced amid weakening economic growth and higher financing costs, but we remain constructive on tight supplies, firm momentum and ongoing geopolitical risks.
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        More on Market outlooks

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