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State Street Gold Fund Commentary Q4 2025 Update

In Q4 2025, the State Street Gold Fund posted a 10.9% net return, inline with the rise in gold spot prices in AUD during the quarter¹. Gold prices reached record highs in both USD and AUD in late December—US$4,549/oz and A$6,778/oz, respectively. This surge was driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and increased debasement trades amid persistent U.S. fiscal uncertainty.

13 January 2026

Robin Tsui, CPA, CAIA, CA

APAC Gold Strategist

Gold prices in USD rose 11.3% in Q4, ending the quarter at US$4,319/oz. October marked a historic milestone as gold surpassed the US$4,000/oz level for the first time, driven by strong price momentum, resilient ETF inflows, escalating trade tensions, and growing expectations of further monetary easing. Historically, gold has benefited from a lower real interest rate environment—a trend that continued as the Fed implemented two rate cuts in Q4. In total, the Fed delivered three cuts in 2025, and market expectations for an additional two to three cuts in 2026 should provide ongoing support for gold.

Global investors allocated US$24 billion to gold ETFs in Q4, driven by strong demand from North America and the Asia-Pacific region. For the full year, gold ETFs posted a record-breaking US$88.5 billion in net inflows—the highest on record. Investment demand remained resilient throughout Q4, supported by macroeconomic policy shifts, safe-haven flows, and sustained investor interest.

Elevated stock–bond correlations reinforce the case for strategic gold allocation. If these correlations remain at historically high levels, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier will become increasingly vital, offering investors a compelling alternative to traditional 60/40 portfolios in the near term.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates three times in 2025, lowering the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.60%—its lowest level since April 2023. RBA Governor Michele Bullock signaled that no further cuts are expected, with the possibility of rate hikes or an extended hold in 2026. This hawkish stance is likely to continue supporting the AUD, which appreciated 7.8% against the USD in 2025. With Australia’s inflation still above the RBA’s 2–3% target at 3.4% in November, investors are likely to maintain strong interest in gold as an inflation hedge.

Gold’s historic 2025 rally—marked by a 64.5% surge in USD prices, the largest annual gain since 1979—sets the stage for consolidation in 2026, with prices expected to stabilize between US$4,000/oz and US$4,500/oz. The medium to long-term bullish outlook remains intact, supported by Fed policy easing, sustained central bank and investor demand, elevated stock–bond correlations, and mounting global debt concerns. Further upside may arise from increased portfolio allocations to gold and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, potentially pushing prices toward US$5,000/oz.

Footnotes

Disclosure

Issued by State Street Global Advisors, Australia Services Limited (AFSL Number 74900, ABN 16 108 671 441) (“SSGA, ASL”). Registered office: Level 14, 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia. T: 612 9240 7600. State Street Global Advisors, Australia, Limited (AFSL Number 238276, ABN 42 003 914 225) (“SSGA Australia”) is the Investment Manager.
References to the State Street Gold Fund ("the Fund") in this communication are references to the managed investment scheme domiciled in Australia, promoted by SSGA Australia, in respect of which SSGA, ASL is the Responsible Entity. This general information has been prepared without taking into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider whether it is appropriate for you. You should seek professional advice and consider the product disclosure statement, available at www.ssga.com, before deciding whether to acquire or continue to hold units in the Funds. The Target Market Determination is also available at ssga.com., before deciding whether to acquire or continue to hold units in the Fund. The Target Market Determination is also available at ssga.com.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Investing in commodities entail significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. There are risks associated with investing in Real Assets and the Real Assets sector, including real estate, precious metals and natural resources. Investments can be significantly affected by events relating to these industries.
THE LBMA GOLD PRICE, WHICH IS ADMINISTERED AND PUBLISHED BY ICE BENCHMARK ADMINISTRATION LIMITED (IBA), SERVES AS, OR AS PART OF, AN INPUT OR UNDERLYING REFERENCE FOR THE STATE STREET GOLD FUND.
LBMA GOLD PRICE IS A TRADE MARK OF PRECIOUS METALS PRICES LIMITED, AND IS LICENSED TO IBA AS THE ADMINISTRATOR OF THE LBMA GOLD PRICE. ICE BENCHMARK ADMINSTRATION IS A TRADE MARK OF IBA AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. THE LBMA GOLD PRICE PM, AND THE TRADE MARKS LBMA GOLD PRICE AND ICE BENCHMARK ADMINISTRATION, ARE USED BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS WITH PERMISSION UNDER LICENCE BY IBA.
IBA AND ITS AFFILIATES MAKE NO CLAIM, PREDICATION, WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ANY USE OF THE LBMA GOLD PRICE, OR THE APPROPRIATENESS OR SUITABILITY OF THE LBMA GOLD PRICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE TO WHICH IT MIGHT BE PUT, INCLUDING WITH RESPECT TO THE STATE STREET GOLD FUND. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, ALL IMPLIED TERMS, CONDITIONS AND WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, AS TO QUALITY, MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR PURPOSE, TITLE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT, IN RELATION TO THE LBMA GOLD PRICE, ARE HEREBY EXCLUDED AND NONE OF IBA OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES WILL BE LIABLE IN CONTRACT OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE), FOR BREACH OF STATUTORY DUTY OR NUISANCE, FOR MISREPRESENTATION, OR UNDER ANTITRUST LAWS OR OTHERWISE, IN RESPECT OF ANY INACCURACIES, ERRORS, OMISSIONS, DELAYS, FAILURES, CESSATIONS OR CHANGES (MATERIAL OR OTHERWISE) IN THE LBMA GOLD PRICE, OR FOR ANY DAMAGE, EXPENSE OR OTHER LOSS (WHETHER DIRECT OR INDIRECT) YOU MAY SUFFER ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE LBMA GOLD PRICE OR ANY RELIANCE YOU MAY PLACE UPON IT.
This material should not be considered a solicitation to apply for interests in the Fund and investors should obtain independent financial and other professional advice before making investment decisions. There is no representation or warranty as to the current or accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
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7826536.4.1.ANZ.INST | Exp. Date: 31/01/2027

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