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A Record-Breaking Bull Run for Equities

  • The current S&P500 bull market is the longest in history, but the longer the equity markets rally, the greater the certainty that a market correction will materialize.
  • For many investors, this means that an equity investment approach focusing on risk-adjusted returns may hold increasing appeal in the years ahead.

 



On August 22, 2018, the current S&P500 bull market became the longest in history, exceeding the previous record of 3,452 days, set by the dot-com bull market in the early 2000s.

The record-breaking length of the current bull market is certainly notable. Perhaps even more remarkable is its global reach. As the chart shows, equity markets in every major region in the world have rallied since their March 2009 lows.


A Record-Breaking Bull Run for Equities

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A genuinely global equity bull market like this is extremely rare.  For example, during the last bull market, the technology bubble of 2000s, Japan was left out because a real-estate and stock-market collapse led to a long period of economic stagflation. Over a ten-year period during the course of the technology bubble, the Japanese market went up only 24%. In comparison, the Japanese market is up 153% over about the same amount of time in the current bull market.

So what does this long-running, global equity-market rally with impressive cumulative returns mean for investors? Unfortunately, the longer the equity markets continue to rally, the greater the certainty that a market correction will materialize. This correction is likely to lead to a period of lower expected returns for equities. In a recent analysis conducted by State Street Global Advisors, fourteen of the leading investment banks and investment managers foresee annual returns of only 4% to 6% over the next five to 10 years.2 This suggests that investors’ desired outcomes are likely to shift from return on capital to return of capital — i.e., protection against drawdown potential — in the coming years.

The potential for a correction is underlined by an uptick in volatility, which we believe is likely to be persistent. Even leaving aside recent volatility in US-based FANG1 stocks, we have already experienced a more volatile environment. In February 2018, volatility spiked over the first week of the month, with the VIX index jumping roughly 24%.2 History suggests that these kinds of volatility spikes presage higher volatility more generally. Indeed, the relationship between current and future volatility is much stronger, on average, than the relationship between current and future stock prices.3 For many investors, this means that an equity investment approach that focuses on risk-adjusted returns may hold increasing appeal in the years ahead.

A genuinely global equity bull market like this is extremely rare.For example, during the last bull market, the technology bubble of 2000s, Japan was left out because a real-estate and stock-market collapse led to a long period of economic stagflation. Over a ten-year period during the course of the technology bubble, the Japanese market went up only 24%. In comparison, the Japanese market is up 153% over about the same amount of time in the current bull market.

So what does this long-running, global equity-market rally with impressive cumulative returns mean for investors? Unfortunately, the longer the equity markets continueto rally, the greater the certainty that a market correction will materialize. This correction is likely to lead to a period of lower expected returns for equities. In a recent analysis conducted by State Street Global Advisors, fourteen of the leading investment banks and investment managers foresee annual returns of only 4% to 6% over the next five to 10 years.This suggests that investors’ desired outcomes are likely to shift fromreturnoncapital to returnofcapital—i.e., protection against drawdown potential—in the coming years.

The potential for a correction is underlined by an uptick in volatility, which we believe is likely to be persistent. Even leaving aside recent volatility in US-based FANG1stocks, we have already experienced a more volatile environment. In February 2018, volatility spiked over the first week of the month, with the VIX index jumping roughly 24%.History suggests that these kinds of volatility spikes presage higher volatility more generally. Indeed, the relationship between current and future volatility is much stronger, on average, than the relationship between current and future stock prices.For many investors, this means that an equity investment approach that focuses on risk-adjusted returns may hold increasing appeal in the years ahead.


A Record-Breaking Bull Run for Equities


Footnotes
Glossary

Bull market: A bull market is a financial market in which prices are rising or are expected to rise.

FANG: FANG, an acronym, is representative of four of the most popular and best-performing tech stocks in recent memory: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google.

Risk-adjusted return: Risk-adjusted return refines an investment's return by measuring how much risk is involved in producing that return, which is generally expressed as a number or rating. Risk-adjusted returns are applied to individual securities, investment funds and portfolios.

VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 index options, calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange. It is colloquially referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge.

Disclosures

The views expressed in this material are the views of our Active Quantitative Equities team through the period ended August 21, 2018 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.

This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.

All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall have no liability for decisions based on such information.

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Exp Date 08/31/2020