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Global High Yield – Year in Review

  • A combination of global inflation showing signs of cooling, better-than-expected corporate earnings, and an apparent end to DM hiking cycles saw Global High Yield return in the low teens for 2023.
  • Even with a refinancing wave coming, lack of large problem sectors and the presence of a private credit backstop make us expect a longer, but shallower defaults cycle this time, with N12M expected defaults for US HY at 3.0–3.5%, and EUR HY at 2.0–2.5%.
  • At 384 bps at the end of the year, GHY spreads are now quite rich and leave little cushion for downside outcomes — so, use rally in November and December to take profits. Yields at 7.5% are still at reasonably healthy levels and total-return-oriented investors need not position too conservatively

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