Above-potential growth will persist in an uneven and multi-layered recovery.
While the world maintains its focus on the battle against COVID-19, there are reasons for optimism in the months ahead. We believe that the current economic recovery will continue to deliver above-potential global growth; markets are indeed “Continuing the Climb.” But as we move past peak momentum and peak accommodation, the recovery that follows will likely be uneven and multi-layered. Many risks to our outlook remain, including uncertainty about the nature of inflation.
Other urgent issues are returning to the fore. The search for yield in a relatively low-rate environment is causing investors to rethink their fixed income strategies. The climate crisis — one of the defining challenges of our era — is causing investors to search for ways to express their views on climate and related topics. And because the macro rationale for China investment remains intact, investors are searching for the most appropriate ways to access that market. We’ll explore these themes and more in this year’s Global Market Outlook.
From a macroeconomic perspective, 2021 was an extraordinary year. Economists and investors alike are now pondering what the new year will bring. As the recovery continues to deliver above-potential growth globally, we believe it will do so with a bit of a rotation tilt that allows, for example, the eurozone to narrow — and perhaps even close — the growth gap with the US.
The global growth narrative is far from uniform. In emerging markets (EM), growth headwinds persist as lagging vaccination levels, rising interest rates, electoral uncertainties, and other domestic policy considerations take their toll. In China, we have downgraded 2022 growth expectations to just 5.0% and still see near-term risks skewed to the downside.
The pandemic remains an important driver of performance; the COVID battle has not been won just yet. One cannot overstate the importance of vigilance in continuing the COVID fight at this stage of the business cycle. This is because the lowest-hanging “re-opening” fruit has already been harvested, and the gains that come next will be harder-won and more modest. In light of the stellar returns of the past year, this is even more true in financial markets than in the real economy. In addition, because financial markets are notoriously forward-looking, the concerns that will accompany the removal of fiscal and (especially) monetary policy accommodation will become more prominent by the middle of 2022.
In many ways, the twin dynamics of high growth and high inflation that dominated the macro narrative in 2021 will extend into 2022. However, while inflation steadily built over the course of 2021, it should steadily decline from mid-2022 onward. The current annual average rate of inflation remains elevated by virtue of arithmetic, but by the middle of 2022 the acute inflation worries that currently dominate headlines should markedly subside. After all, base effects are likely to become serious headwinds a year from now. That said, we do not expect inflation to suddenly disappear. Rather, we expect to see a degree of “inflation rotation” take hold — particularly in the US — as shelter-cost inflation intensifies and offsets easing inflation pressures in other areas. Moreover, though worries around cyclical inflation will subside, the intense debate over possible structural changes to inflation is likely to persist. The two key indicators that we watch in this regard remain business/consumer inflation expectations and wage inflation. Both have moved sharply higher in 2021 to touch multi-year highs, but we would need to see current levels persist before a convincing argument for structurally higher inflation can be made.
We also think that it is worth considering more broadly whether a combination of highly accommodative macro policy, rising production costs in a scenario of “peak globalization,” new costs associated with the green energy transition, and renewed global focus on equitable growth and income redistribution will create a fertile ground where persistently higher rates of inflation might take root. Investors might consider some protection against such a scenario.
We are past the moment of peak monetary policy accommodation. EM central banks have clearly led the move toward higher interest rates so far. Given EM’s higher sensitivity to food price inflation, and that in general inflation expectations are less well anchored in EM than in developed markets (DM), this is a reasonable dynamic. Expect DM central banks to jump on the rate-hike bandwagon in increasing numbers over the course of 2022.
For the Fed, the immediate focus is on tapering and then ending asset purchases. The Fed may well accelerate the pace of its quantitative-easing taper in the first quarter as a precautionary step toward creating more optionality around the timing of its first rate hike. Even so, many uncertainties remain regarding the pace of tightening. Recently, markets have swung violently, buffeted by more aggressive pricing-in of tightening expectations, followed by central-bank pushback against those same expectations.
Our view is that much of the inflation we are experiencing today is “baked into the system” — i.e., caused by past fiscal stimulus and current supply chain challenges that central banks are powerless to resolve. Therefore, central-bank efforts to fight inflation with aggressive rate hikes might not only be detrimental to growth, but also ineffectual in taming inflation quickly. Fortunately, central banks know this and will seek to regain control of market and investor expectations. With a bit of luck, the task of central banks should become easier in coming months, allowing for a policy of steady but gradual normalization over 2022 to 2023.
Against this macroeconomic backdrop, State Street’s latest monthly tactical portfolio positioning, summarized in Figure 1, remains supportive of risk assets — although we are conscious of near-term risks to the outlook.
Highlights from, and recent changes to, our tactical portfolio positioning include:
The recovery will continue to deliver above-potential global growth, but recovery will also be uneven.
High growth and high inflation will extend into 2022; however, we think inflation will steadily decline from Q2 2022 onward.
We remain overweight to risk assets in our tactical portfolio and have continued to build our position in European equities, which are attractively valued and score well on most of the attributes we monitor.
SPDR Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond UCITS ETF
Marketing Communication. For professional clients use only.
Information Classification: General Access.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400.F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
For Investors in Finland: The offering of funds by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervision Authority in accordance with Section 127 of the Act on Common Funds (29.1.1999/48) and by virtue of confirmation from the Financial Supervision Authority the Companies may publicly distribute their Shares in Finland. Certain information and documents that the Companies must publish in Ireland pursuant to applicable Irish law are translated into Finnish and are available for Finnish investors by contacting State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited, 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
For Investors in France: This document does not constitute an offer or request to purchase shares in the Company. Any subscription for shares shall be made in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the complete Prospectus, the KIID, the addenda as well as the Company Supplements. These documents are available from the Company centralizing correspondent: State Street Banque S.A., Coeur Défense - Tour A - La Défense 4 33e étage 100, Esplanade du Général de Gaulle 92 931 Paris La Défense cedex France or on the French part of the site ssga.com/etfs. The Company is an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) governed by Irish law and accredited by the Central Bank of Ireland as a UCITS in accordance with European Regulations. European Directive no. 2014/91/EU dated 23 July 2014 on UCITS, as amended, established common rules pursuant to the cross-border marketing of UCITS with which they duly comply. This common base does not exclude differentiated implementation. This is why a European UCITS can be sold in France even though its activity does not comply with rules identical to those governing the approval of this type of product in France.The offering of these compartments has been notified to the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in accordance with article L214-2-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code.
For Investors in Germany: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in accordance with section 312 of the German Investment Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectuses, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Branch in Germany, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Telephone: +49 (0)89-55878-400. Facsimile: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 49934. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300.
Israel: No action has been taken or will be taken in Israel that would permit a public offering of the Securities or distribution of this sales brochure to the public in Israel. This sales brochure has not been approved by the Israel Securities Authority (the ‘ISA’).
Accordingly, the Securities shall only be sold in Israel to an investor of the type listed in the First Schedule to the Israeli Securities Law, 1978, which has confirmed in writing that it falls within one of the categories listed therein (accompanied by external confirmation where this is required under ISA guidelines), that it is aware of the implications of being considered such an investor and consents thereto, and further that the Securities are being purchased for its own account and not for the purpose of re-sale or distribution.
This sales brochure may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person other than those to whom copies have been sent.
Nothing in this sales brochure should be considered investment advice or investment marketing as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (“the Investment Advice Law”). Investors are encouraged to seek competent investment advice from a locally licensed investment advisor prior to making any investment. State Street is not licensed under the Investment Advice Law, nor does it carry the insurance as required of a licensee thereunder.
This sales brochure does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities other than the Securities offered hereby, nor does it constitute an offer to sell to or solicitation of an offer to buy from any person or persons in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful, or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so, or to a person or persons to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
For Investors in Italy: State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, Italy Branch (“State Street Global Advisors Italy”) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 49934, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Italy is registered in Italy with company number 11871450968 - REA: 2628603 and VAT number 11871450968, and its office is located at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milan, Italy. T: +39 02 32066 100. F: +39 02 32066 155.
For Investors in Luxemburg: The Companies have been notified to the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier in Luxembourg in order to market its shares for sale to the public in Luxembourg and the Companies are notified Undertakings in Collective Investment for Transferable Securities (UCITS).
For Investors in the Netherlands: This communication is directed at qualified investors within the meaning of Section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act (Wet op het financieel toezicht) as amended. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Distribution of this document does not trigger a licence requirement for the Companies or SSGA in the Netherlands and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised over the Companies or SSGA by the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financiële Markten). The Companies have completed their notification to the Authority Financial Markets in the Netherlands in order to market their shares for sale to the public in the Netherlands and the Companies are, accordingly, investment institutions (beleggingsinstellingen) according to Section 2:72 Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act of Investment Institutions.
For Investors in Norway: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Companies has been notified to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) in accordance with applicable Norwegian Securities Funds legislation. By virtue of a confirmation letter from the Financial Supervisory Authority dated 28 March 2013 (16 October 2013 for umbrella II) the Companies may market and sell their shares in Norway.
For Investors in Spain: State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc have been authorised for public distribution in Spain and are registered with the Spanish Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) under no.1244 and no.1242. Before investing, investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Documents, the Marketing Memoranda, the fund rules or instruments of incorporation as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I and II plc from Cecabank, S.A. Alcalá 27, 28014 Madrid (Spain) who is the Spanish Representative, Paying Agent and distributor in Spain or at spdrs.com. The authorised Spanish distributor of State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs is available on the website of the Securities Market Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
For Investors in Switzerland: The collective investment schemes referred to herein are collective investment schemes under Irish law. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstr. 19, 8027 Zurich, as well as from the main distributor in Switzerland, State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. Before investing please read the prospectus and the KIID, copies of which can be obtained from the Swiss representative, or at ssga.com.
For Investors in United Kingdom: The Funds have been registered for distribution in the UK pursuant to the UK’s temporary permissions regime under regulation 62 of the Collective Investment Schemes (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. The Funds are directed at 'professional clients' in the UK (as defined in rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Funds, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
This document has been issued by State Street Global Advisors Europe Limited (“SSGAEL”), regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. Fax: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
SPDR ETFs is the exchange traded funds (“ETF”) platform of State Street Global Advisors and is comprised of funds that have been authorised by Central Bank of Ireland as open-ended UCITS investment companies.
State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs Europe I & II plc issue SPDR ETFs, and is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds. The Company is organised as an Undertaking for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities (UCITS) under the laws of Ireland and authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate in value, so that when shares are sold or redeemed, they may be worth more or less than when they were purchased. Although shares may be bought or sold on an exchange through any brokerage account, shares are not individually redeemable from the fund. Investors may acquire shares and tender them for redemption through the fund in large aggregations known as “creation units.” Please see the fund’s prospectus for more details.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice as such term is defined under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss regulation and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any investment. It does not take into account any investor’s or potential investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, risk appetite or investment horizon. If you require investment advice you should consult your tax and financial or other professional advisor.
The views expressed in this material are the views of State Street Global Advisors through December 6, 2021 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
All the index performance results referred to are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only. It should not be assumed that they represent the performance of any particular investment.
Equity securities may fluctuate in value in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Investing in high yield fixed income securities, otherwise known as “junk bonds”, is considered speculative and involves greater risk of loss of principal and interest than investing in investment grade fixed income securities. These lower-quality debt securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer.
There are risks associated with investing in Real Assets and the Real Assets sector, including real estate, precious metals and natural resources. Investments can be significantly affected by events relating to these industries.
Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Investments in emerging or developing markets may be more volatile and less liquid than investing in developed markets and may involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature and to political systems which have less stability than those of more developed countries.
Issuers of convertible securities may not be as financially strong as those issuing securities with higher credit ratings and may be more vulnerable to changes in the economy. Other risks associated with convertible bond investments include: Call risk which is the risk that bond issuers may repay securities with higher coupon or interest rates before the security's maturity date; liquidity risk which is the risk that certain types of investments may not be possible to sell the investment at any particular time or at an acceptable price; and investments in derivatives, which can be more sensitive to sudden fluctuations in interest rates or market prices, potential illiquidity of the markets, as well as potential loss of principal.
THE SPDR REFINITIV GLOBAL CONVERTIBLE BOND UCITS ETF (THE “PRODUCT”) IS NOT SPONSORED, ENDORSED, SOLD OR PROMOTED BY REFINITIV LIMITED OR ANY OF ITS SUBSIDIARIES OR AFFILIATES (“REFINITIV”). REFINITIV MAKE NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, TO THE OWNERS OF THE PRODUCT(S) OR ANY MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REGARDING THE ADVISABILITY OF INVESTING IN SECURITIES GENERALLY OR IN THE PRODUCT(S) PARTICULARLY OR THE ABILITY OF THE REFINITIV QUALIFIED GLOBAL CONVERTIBLE INDEX (THE “INDEX”) TO TRACK GENERAL MARKET PERFORMANCE. REFINITIV’ ONLY RELATIONSHIP TO THE PRODUCT(S) AND STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS (THE “LICENSEE”) IS THE LICENSING OF THE INDEX, WHICH IS DETERMINED, COMPOSED AND CALCULATED BY REFINITIV OR ITS LICENSORS WITHOUT REGARD TO THE LICENSEE OR THE PRODUCT(S). REFINITIV HAS NO OBLIGATION TO TAKE THE NEEDS OF THE LICENSEE OR THE OWNERS OF THE PRODUCT(S) INTO CONSIDERATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE FOREGOING. REFINITIV IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR AND HAS NOT PARTICIPATED IN THE DETERMINATION OF THE TIMING OF, PRICES AT, OR QUANTITIES OF THE PRODUCT(S) TO BE ISSUED OR IN THE DETERMINATION OR CALCULATION OF THE EQUATION BY WHICH THE PRODUCT(S) IS TO BE CONVERTED INTO CASH. REFINITIV HAS NO OBLIGATION OR LIABILITY IN CONNECTION WITH THE ADMINISTRATION, MARKETING OR TRADING OF THE PRODUCT(S). REFINITIV DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE QUALITY, ACCURACY AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. REFINITIV MAKE NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY LICENSEE, OWNERS OF THE PRODUCT(S), OR ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY FROM THE USE OF THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN IN CONNECTION WITH THE RIGHTS LICENSED HEREUNDER OR FOR ANY OTHER USE.
REFINITIV MAKE NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE WITH RESPECT TO THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL REFINITIV HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS, EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
Standard & Poor’s, S&P and SPDR are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.
All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) or applicable Swiss Regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Please refer to the Fund’s latest Key Investor Information Document and Prospectus before making any final investment decision. The latest English version of the prospectus and the KIID can be found at ssga.com.
A summary of investor rights can be found here: https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-docs/summary-of-investor-rights/ssga-spdr-investors-rights-summary.pdf
Note that the Management Company may decide to terminate the arrangements made for marketing and proceed with de-notification in compliance with Article 93a of Directive 2009/65/EC.
© 2022 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Exp. Date: 11/30/2023