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Die nächste Etappe für Schwellenländeranleihen
Seit die US-Wahlergebnisse bekannt wurden, gingen die Marktteilnehmer wieder mehr Risiko in ihren Portfolios ein, da die liquiden Mittel bereits im Hinblick auf das Jahresende eingesetzt wurden. Diese Marktbewegung wurde durch die Ankündigung, dass ein Impfstoff kurz vor dem Abschluss steht, noch verstärkt. Diese Entwicklungen waren besonders vorteilhaft für die Schwellenländer (EM), wo der designierte Präsident Joe Biden als Globalisierer gilt und daher wahrscheinlich einige der durch die Trump-Administration verursachten Verwerfungen rückgängig machen wird. Von der Nachricht, dass ein asiatisches Freihandelsabkommen - die Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - unterzeichnet worden ist, wird der Welthandel zusätzlich profitieren.
Die Welt sieht also nach einem etwas freundlicherem Ort für die Schwellenländer aus, da für 2021 mit Wachstums gerechnet wird. Bisher gibt es auch nur vereinzelte Anzeichen für eine Inflation. Die PriceStats®-Indikatoren, die von State Street Global Markets entwickelt wurden, deuten darauf hin, dass die Inflationsfront in den Schwellenländern außerhalb Brasiliens und der Türkei kaum unter Druck steht. Daher erwarten wir eine Periode mit einer ausgewogeneren Geldpolitik, in der einige Zentralbanken, wie die Türkei, die Zinssätze anheben, während andere, wie Indonesien, im Modus der Lockerung bleiben. Das Rätsel in der Welt der Schwellenländer ist nach wie vor China, wo eine expandierende Wirtschaft im Jahr 2020 dazu geführt hat, dass die Rendite 10-jähriger Anleihen von den Tiefstständen unmittelbar nach der COVID-19-Krise um 80 Basispunkte gestiegen ist. Dies trotz der Anzeichen, dass die Inflation eingedämmt bleibt, und trotz einer Stärkung des Yuan.
Die besseren Wachstumsaussichten könnten einige Anleger dazu veranlassen, Hartwährungsfonds zu bevorzugen, bei denen die Renditen mehr von der Kreditwürdigkeit abhängen und bei denen ein stärkeres Wachstum dafür sorgen dürfte, dass die Länder ihre Schulden besser bedienen können. In der Tat hat der ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index trotz seiner niedrigen Laufzeit von weniger als 2,5 Jahren bis heute eine Rendite von 2% in USD ohne Absicherung erzielt.1 Bei einer Rendite von mehr als 2,3% bis zum Tiefststand ist dies eine Möglichkeit, einem Portfolio einen Anstieg der laufenden Rendite zu verschaffen und gleichzeitig das Durationsrisiko gering zu halten.
Höhen und Tiefen eines sinkenden USD
Nichtsdestotrotz ist eine zentrale Ansicht von State Street Global Markets, dass der USD seine Abwertung fortsetzen wird. Die Kombination aus der Tatsache, dass der USD nur wenig Unterstützung durch Zinsunterschiede genießt, gepaart mit der Hoffnung auf eine Rückkehr zu einem normaleren Umfeld, könnte die Attraktivität des USD als sicherer Hafen untergraben. Wie die nachstehende Grafik veranschaulicht, würde dies Anleihen in Landeswährung begünstigen. Es besteht eine besonders enge inverse Beziehung zwischen den Veränderungen des handelsgewichteten USD (DXY) und den Renditen des Lokalwährungsindexes, aber viel weniger für den Hartwährungsindex.
Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 13. November 2020.
Um die Bedeutung der Währung in Relation zu setzen: Wie bereits erwähnt, sind die Renditen chinesischer Anleihen seit Anfang April zwar gestiegen, die Gesamtrenditen waren jedoch immer noch positiv (+4,5%), da die kombinierten Währungs- (+7,2%) und Kuponrenditen (+2,0%) die Anleiheverluste (-4,5%) ausgeglichen haben. Darüber hinaus erscheintdie unterschiedlichen Währungen, die durch den Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Liquid Govt Index repräsentiert werden, aus historischer Sicht gegenüber dem USD weiterhin um 7,3% unterbewertet.3
Die seit den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen gestiegenen Renditen in Landeswährung gegenüber dem Hartwährungsindex (ebenfalls auf dem Schaubild zu sehen)4 deuten darauf hin, dass die Anleger jetzt eine positivere Einstellung zum Eingehen von Risiken haben. Der Nachfrageschub könnte auch ein Produkt der angebotenen höheren Rendite sein, wobei der Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Liquid Govt Index eine Rendite von über 3,7% auf den schlechtesten Wert lieferte.
Da sowohl die EM-Anleihen in Lokal- als auch in Hartwährung den USD als Basiswährung haben, ist eine Absicherung des Risikos einer USD-Abwertung sinnvoll. Die auf Jahresbasis umgerechneten Kosten für die Absicherung des EUR-USD mit 1-Monats-Forwards lagen im Dezember 2019 bei ca. 3% und liegen jetzt bei ca. 0,8%, so dass die Möglichkeit, zwischen EUR-abgesicherten und nicht abgesicherten Schuldtiteln aus Schwellenländern zu wechseln, weniger Anlass zur Sorge um die Performance gibt.
Wie man dieses Thema spielt
State Street Global Advisors hat in Zusammenarbeit mit Bloomberg Barclays eine für den ETF-Markt neue Methode zur Währungsabsicherung eingeführt, bei der nur die USD-Basiswährungsrendite des Index gegenüber dem EUR abgesichert wird. Es handelt sich derzeit um den einzigen ETF mit dieser Besonderheit, der es Anlegern ermöglicht, das volle Potenzial der lokalen Währung von Schwellenländeranleihen im Jahr 2020 auszuschöpfen.
Sollten sich die längerfristigen Prognosen eines schwächeren Dollars bewahrheiten, könnte dies Vermögenswerte aus Schwellenländern unterstützen. Die Möglichkeit, dieses Risiko abzusichern, könnte auch EUR-basierten Anlegern sehr helfen.
Um mehr über die Fonds zu erfahren, die ein Engagement in den oben beschriebenen Themen bieten können, und um die vollständige Performance-Historie dieser Fonds einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte den untenstehenden Links:
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Bond USD Base CCY Hdg to EUR UCITS ETF (Acc)
SPDR ICE BofA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond EUR Hdg UCITS ETF (Acc)
European-Domicilied ETP Segment Flows (Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category Flows ($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 12-19 November 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter.
1Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 13. November 2020
2Renditen chinesischer Anleihen im Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Liquid Govt Index zwischen 31. März und 13. November, Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
3Stand: 31. Oktober 2020.
4Ein Teil der Underperformance des ICE BoA 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond ex-144a Index kann auf seine niedrigere Duration zurückgeführt werden, aber selbst unter Berücksichtigung dieser Tatsache war die Erholung der Erträge aus der Lokalwährung seit Ende Oktober 2020 größer als bei den Hartwährungsindizes.
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2015149.152.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 30/11/2021