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Investment-Grade-Anleihen: Auf dem Mittelweg bleiben
- Im aktuellen Umfeld sind wir der Meinung, dass Investment-Grade-Anleihen gut für Anleger geeignet sein könnten, die sich in den kommenden Monaten mit einer Vielzahl potenzieller Marktszenarien auseinandersetzen müssen.
- Wir sehen vier Hauptgründe, die für diese Anlageklasse sprechen: Unterstützung durch die Zentralbanken, Renditeanstieg gegenüber Staatsanleihen, enge Spreads und Potenzial für Gewinne nach der Einführung von Impfstoffen.
Das aktuelle Umfeld für Investment-Grade-Anleihen
Investment-Grade-Anleihen (IG) haben seit der US-Wahl stark zugelegt, wobei sich die Spreads zu Staatsanleihen auf ein Niveau eingeengt haben, das in etwa dem vor der Pandemie entspricht. Die Verengung der Spreads war sogar so stark, dass einige diese Entwicklung als überzogen ansehen. Schließlich gibt es wenig Gewissheit darüber, wie schnell die Impfstoffe eingeführt werden und die Menschen wieder zur Arbeit zurückkehren können. Wie die Welt nach der Pandemie aussehen wird, ist ebenfalls unklar, wobei die langfristigen Schäden für die Wirtschaft eine Unbekannte sind.
Die Wahrnehmung, dass die Märkte eine Menge guter Nachrichten eingepreist haben, beschränkt sich nicht auf IG. Tatsächlich befindet sich die Anlageklasse in guter Gesellschaft, da viele Aktienindizes neue Allzeithochs erreicht haben und auch die Spreads für Hochzinsanleihen sind wieder auf einem Niveau, das zuletzt Anfang 2020 gesehen wurde.
Umgekehrt ist es für viele, die ihren Anlagehorizont durch die Linse eines wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs sehen, einfacher zu argumentieren, dass Staatsanleihen und nicht Risikoanlagen teuer aussehen. Die Renditen von US-Staatsanleihen sind zwar etwas gestiegen, aber die Käufe der Zentralbanken bremsen den Impuls für einen nennenswerten Anstieg der Renditen. Einige Anleger könnten auch über das Jahresende hinaus eine Vorliebe für sichere Anlagen behalten, aber der Druck negativer oder bestenfalls niedriger Renditen ist eine Herausforderung für die Anleger.
Darüber hinaus gibt es, nur weil die Zentralbanken engagierte Käufer bleiben, keine Garantie für dauerhaft niedrige Renditen. Abbildung 1 unten zeigt die uneinheitliche Beziehung zwischen den Käufen von Staatsanleihen durch die EZB und der 10-jährigen Bundrendite. Renditespitzen sind trotz eines umfangreichen Kaufprogramms bei zahlreichen Gelegenheiten aufgetreten. Während die zusätzlichen Käufe der EZB in Höhe von 500 Mrd. EUR und die Verlängerung des Programms vom Markt begrüßt werden, wird die Emissionstätigkeit im Jahr 2021 hoch bleiben und durch den Pandemie-Rettungsfonds der EU, der 750 Mrd. EUR aufbringen soll, noch verstärkt werden.
Abbildung 1: EZB-Staatsanleihekäufe vs. 10-jährige Bundesanleihe
Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 4. Dezember 2020.
Vier Gründe, Investment-Grade Anleihen zu schätzen
Vielleicht ist die "halbe Miete", die IG-Anleihen darstellen, also genau das, was Anleger in diesen unsicheren Zeiten brauchen, weil die Anlageklasse nicht von der Entwicklung eines einzigen Szenarios abhängig ist.
- Unterstützung durch die Zentralbanken. IG-Anleihen haben den relativen Sicherheitsaspekt, dass sie durch Käufe der Zentralbanken unterstützt werden. Insbesondere in Europa haben die EZB-Käufe im 4. Quartal 2020 bisher durchschnittlich 1,8 Mrd. EUR pro Woche betragen. Während die Fed im Anleihenbereich weit weniger aktiv war, ist der Markt zuversichtlich, dass die Fed die Käufe im Falle einer Marktstörung verstärken kann.
- Immer noch ein Renditeanstieg gegenüber Staatsanleihen. Ein Renditeanstieg gegenüber Staatsanleihen von 90-100 Basispunkten bedeutet, dass der Besitz von IG-Anleihen einen positiven Carry-Trade darstellt. Während Anleger die Sicherheit von Staatsanleihen zum Jahresende schätzen, ist der Besitz eines Vermögenswerts mit negativem Carry nur über einen kurzen Anlagehorizont eine Herausforderung.
- Die Spreads sind eng. Die IG-Spreads mögen aus historischer Sicht recht eng erscheinen, aber der allgemeine Trend der Spread-Kompression bedeutet, dass IG auf relativer Basis interessant bleibt, insbesondere in Europa. Strategien, die darauf abzielen, durch Investitionen in Staatsanleihen der Peripherie Renditen zu erzielen, könnten sich zum Beispiel erledigt haben. Der 5-jährige italienische BTP hat im Durchschnitt1 25 Basispunkte mehr als die Rendite des Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporates Index erbracht; nach der jüngsten Verengung der Spreads werden 5-jährige BTPs jetzt jedoch 35 Basispunkte über dem Corporate Index gehandelt.
- Noch etwas Potenzial für Gewinne. Die Sektorrotation könnte das Potenzial für eine weitere Verengung der Spreads bieten. Insbesondere die zyklischen Konsumgüter und der Energiesektor sind hinter der Performance der meisten anderen Sektoren zurückgeblieben. Wenn der Impfstoff wirklich die Wunderwaffe ist und signalisiert, dass das Jahr 2021 eine Rückkehr zu einem normaleren wirtschaftlichen Umfeld bringen wird, dann können diese Sektoren aufholen.
Während IG-Anleiherenditen also wahrscheinlich nicht mit denen der letzten sechs Monate mithalten können, sollte die Anlageklasse als relativ stabiler Vermögenswert fungieren, der eine positive Rendite aufweist und unserer Meinung nach bis 2021 ein gewisses Renditepotenzial nach oben behält.
Den Flows folgen
Die Zuflüsse und Bestandsdaten in unserem Q4 Bond Compass deuten darauf hin, dass die Anleger zu Beginn des 4. Quartals bereits in IG-Anleihen übergewichtet waren. Dies könnte die Anleger daran hindern, ihre Bestände aufzustocken, und bedeutet, dass es sich als vorteilhaft erweisen könnte, sich auf Bereiche zu konzentrieren, in denen die Zuflüsse unserer Meinung nach anhalten werden: in ESG-Anleihen.
Der Fokus auf ESG war 2020 signifikant, wobei unglaubliche 83% der Zuflüsse in Euro-IG-Anleihe -ETFs laut Morningstar-Daten in Fonds mit ESG-Screening flossen.2 Wir sahen nur 12% der Zuflüsse für die entsprechenden US-IG-Corporate-Fonds und 19% für GBP, was bedeutet, dass es für diese Märkte Raum zum Aufholen gibt. Für das Jahr 2021 erwarten wir eine ESG-freundlichere Agenda des Weißen Hauses und eine zunehmende Regulierung in Europa, so dass wir davon ausgehen, dass der Trend zu ESG-Investitionen anhalten wird.
Ein zunehmender Investitionsfluss in ESG-konforme Anlagen könnte dazu führen, dass diese Anlagen beginnen, ihre Vergleichsgruppen zu übertreffen. Dies legt nahe, dass ein Best-in-Class-Ansatz (bei dem sich die Fonds auf die Emittenten mit den höchsten ESG-Bewertungen konzentrieren) bevorzugt werden sollte, wie er für die Bloomberg SASB Corporate ESG Ex-Controversies Select-Indizes gewählt wurde. Diese Indizes sind so optimiert, dass ihre Eigenschaften in Richtung ihrer Mutterindizes zurückgedrängt werden, und können somit als Baustein für ein Anleihenportfolio verwendet werden.
Wie man diese Themen spielt:
SPDR bietet eine Reihe von ETFs an, die Anlegern ein Engagement in den oben beschriebenen Themen ermöglichen. Um mehr über diese ETFs zu erfahren und um die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte den untenstehenden Links:
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-10 Year U.S. Corporate Bond UCITS ETF
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 10+ Year U.S. Corporate Bond UCITS ETF
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Euro Corporate Bond UCITS ETF
European-Domiciled ETP Segment Flows(Top/Bottom 5, $mn)
European-Domiciled ETP Asset Category($mn)
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 3-10 December 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1Ein 10-Jahres-Durchschnitt der wöchentlichen Spreads unter Verwendung der generischen 5Y-BTP-Rendite von Bloomberg gegenüber der Rendite des Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporates Index. Daten vom 10. Dezember 2020.
2Morningstar, Daten bis 30. November 2020 für in Europa domizilierte ETFs.
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Exp. Date: 31/12/2021