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Investment-Grade-Anleihen (IG) haben seit der US-Wahl stark zugelegt, wobei sich die Spreads zu Staatsanleihen auf ein Niveau eingeengt haben, das in etwa dem vor der Pandemie entspricht. Die Verengung der Spreads war sogar so stark, dass einige diese Entwicklung als überzogen ansehen. Schließlich gibt es wenig Gewissheit darüber, wie schnell die Impfstoffe eingeführt werden und die Menschen wieder zur Arbeit zurückkehren können. Wie die Welt nach der Pandemie aussehen wird, ist ebenfalls unklar, wobei die langfristigen Schäden für die Wirtschaft eine Unbekannte sind.
Die Wahrnehmung, dass die Märkte eine Menge guter Nachrichten eingepreist haben, beschränkt sich nicht auf IG. Tatsächlich befindet sich die Anlageklasse in guter Gesellschaft, da viele Aktienindizes neue Allzeithochs erreicht haben und auch die Spreads für Hochzinsanleihen sind wieder auf einem Niveau, das zuletzt Anfang 2020 gesehen wurde.
Umgekehrt ist es für viele, die ihren Anlagehorizont durch die Linse eines wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs sehen, einfacher zu argumentieren, dass Staatsanleihen und nicht Risikoanlagen teuer aussehen. Die Renditen von US-Staatsanleihen sind zwar etwas gestiegen, aber die Käufe der Zentralbanken bremsen den Impuls für einen nennenswerten Anstieg der Renditen. Einige Anleger könnten auch über das Jahresende hinaus eine Vorliebe für sichere Anlagen behalten, aber der Druck negativer oder bestenfalls niedriger Renditen ist eine Herausforderung für die Anleger.
Darüber hinaus gibt es, nur weil die Zentralbanken engagierte Käufer bleiben, keine Garantie für dauerhaft niedrige Renditen. Abbildung 1 unten zeigt die uneinheitliche Beziehung zwischen den Käufen von Staatsanleihen durch die EZB und der 10-jährigen Bundrendite. Renditespitzen sind trotz eines umfangreichen Kaufprogramms bei zahlreichen Gelegenheiten aufgetreten. Während die zusätzlichen Käufe der EZB in Höhe von 500 Mrd. EUR und die Verlängerung des Programms vom Markt begrüßt werden, wird die Emissionstätigkeit im Jahr 2021 hoch bleiben und durch den Pandemie-Rettungsfonds der EU, der 750 Mrd. EUR aufbringen soll, noch verstärkt werden.
Quelle: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Stand: 4. Dezember 2020.
Vielleicht ist die "halbe Miete", die IG-Anleihen darstellen, also genau das, was Anleger in diesen unsicheren Zeiten brauchen, weil die Anlageklasse nicht von der Entwicklung eines einzigen Szenarios abhängig ist.
Während IG-Anleiherenditen also wahrscheinlich nicht mit denen der letzten sechs Monate mithalten können, sollte die Anlageklasse als relativ stabiler Vermögenswert fungieren, der eine positive Rendite aufweist und unserer Meinung nach bis 2021 ein gewisses Renditepotenzial nach oben behält.
Die Zuflüsse und Bestandsdaten in unserem Q4 Bond Compass deuten darauf hin, dass die Anleger zu Beginn des 4. Quartals bereits in IG-Anleihen übergewichtet waren. Dies könnte die Anleger daran hindern, ihre Bestände aufzustocken, und bedeutet, dass es sich als vorteilhaft erweisen könnte, sich auf Bereiche zu konzentrieren, in denen die Zuflüsse unserer Meinung nach anhalten werden: in ESG-Anleihen.
Der Fokus auf ESG war 2020 signifikant, wobei unglaubliche 83% der Zuflüsse in Euro-IG-Anleihe -ETFs laut Morningstar-Daten in Fonds mit ESG-Screening flossen.2 Wir sahen nur 12% der Zuflüsse für die entsprechenden US-IG-Corporate-Fonds und 19% für GBP, was bedeutet, dass es für diese Märkte Raum zum Aufholen gibt. Für das Jahr 2021 erwarten wir eine ESG-freundlichere Agenda des Weißen Hauses und eine zunehmende Regulierung in Europa, so dass wir davon ausgehen, dass der Trend zu ESG-Investitionen anhalten wird.
Ein zunehmender Investitionsfluss in ESG-konforme Anlagen könnte dazu führen, dass diese Anlagen beginnen, ihre Vergleichsgruppen zu übertreffen. Dies legt nahe, dass ein Best-in-Class-Ansatz (bei dem sich die Fonds auf die Emittenten mit den höchsten ESG-Bewertungen konzentrieren) bevorzugt werden sollte, wie er für die Bloomberg SASB Corporate ESG Ex-Controversies Select-Indizes gewählt wurde. Diese Indizes sind so optimiert, dass ihre Eigenschaften in Richtung ihrer Mutterindizes zurückgedrängt werden, und können somit als Baustein für ein Anleihenportfolio verwendet werden.
SPDR bietet eine Reihe von ETFs an, die Anlegern ein Engagement in den oben beschriebenen Themen ermöglichen. Um mehr über diese ETFs zu erfahren und um die vollständige Performance-Historie einzusehen, folgen Sie bitte den untenstehenden Links:
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-10 Year U.S. Corporate Bond UCITS ETF
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 10+ Year U.S. Corporate Bond UCITS ETF
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Euro Corporate Bond UCITS ETF
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 3-10 December 2020. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1Ein 10-Jahres-Durchschnitt der wöchentlichen Spreads unter Verwendung der generischen 5Y-BTP-Rendite von Bloomberg gegenüber der Rendite des Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporates Index. Daten vom 10. Dezember 2020.
2Morningstar, Daten bis 30. November 2020 für in Europa domizilierte ETFs.
Marketing Communication. For Professional Client Use Only. For regulated qualified investors according to Art. 10 (3) lit. a and b of the Swiss Capital Investment Schemes Act only.
For Investors in Austria: The offering of SPDR ETFs by the Company has been notified to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) in accordance with section 139 of the Austrian Investment Funds Act. Prospective investors may obtain the current sales Prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIID as well as the latest annual and semi-annual report free of charge from State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F+49 (0)89-55878-440.
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For Investors in Switzerland: This document is directed at regulated qualified investors only, as defined by Article 10(3) lit. a and b. of the Swiss Act on Collective Investment Schemes (CISA). Certain of the funds may not be registered for public sale with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) which acts as supervisory authority in investment fund matters and might not qualify as foreign Collective Investment Schemes under Article 120 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act. Accordingly, the shares of those funds may only be offered to regulated qualified investors and not be offered to any other investor in or from Switzerland unless they are placed without public solicitation as such term is defined by FINMA from time to time. Before investing please read the prospectus and the KIID. In relation to those funds which are registered with FINMA, prospective investors may obtain the current sales prospectus, the articles of incorporation, the KIIDs as well as the latest annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich, or at ssga.com, as well as from the main distributor in Switzerland, State Street Global Advisors AG (”SSGA AG“), Beethovenstrasse 19, 8027 Zurich. For additional documentation regarding those funds not registered for public sale, please contact SSGA AG.
United Kingdom: The Companies are recognised schemes under Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“the Act”) and are directed at ‘professional clients’ in the UK (within the meaning of the rules of the Act) who are deemed both knowledgeable and experienced in matters relating to investments. The products and services to which this communication relates are only available to such persons and persons of any other description should not rely on this communication. Many of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system do not apply to the operation of the Companies, and compensation will not be available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
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2015149.156.1.EMEA.INST
Exp. Date: 31/12/2021