Amid progressing vaccination programs across Europe, economic prospects continue to improve for the region as countries reopen. While demand for US equities has long outpaced European equities, recent flow trends and economic prospects suggest Europe may soon start to catch up with its cross-pond counterpart.
On 7 April 2021 we wrote about the case for getting exposure to the European recovery through eurozone dividends. The trend has continued and, with vaccinations progressing in the European Union and already well advanced in the United Kingdom, economic prospects continue to improve as countries reopen. While European equity exposures have long been less loved than their US counterparts, the recent surge in flows toward European equity exposures – from US and European investors alike – may add to the potential outperformance of the region for several reasons.
The Economy: Reopening Having an Impact
Amid economic reopening, service activity is picking up strongly across the eurozone even as manufacturing powers ahead at full speed. Preliminary readings on the May purchasing managers indices on 22 May 2021 were highly encouraging. The eurozone manufacturing index was practically unchanged at an elevated 62.8, while the service index surged almost five points to 55.1. As economies reopen and demand is unleashed more fully, State Street Global Advisors expects to see inflationary pressures broaden in the coming months. Meanwhile, we also expect robust growth in developed markets: 5.3% for the US, 4.7% for Germany, 5.7% for France, 6.2% for the UK.1 Our European forecast is generally higher than the market consensus.
Figure 1: 2021 GDP Growth Forecasts – Evolution
Source: State Street Global Advisors, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 7 May 2021. Forecasts are based on certain analyses and assumptions and there is no guarantee they will be realised.
Earnings Growth: Europe has the Highest EPS Growth of Developed Markets
Robust economic growth could also continue to create a positive backdrop for earnings, which have been strong, while low rates and demand for higher yielding credit has allowed even some of the lowest-rated companies to engage in balance sheet strengthening. Europe has the highest EPS growth expectations across developed markets at 30.4% versus 25.4% for the MSCI World Index (as of 19 May 2021) and also trades closer to longer-term averages relative to history (see Figure 2) than peers.
Figure 2: Price Earnings and EPS Growth
Source: State Street Global Advisors, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 19 May 2021. Chart references MSCI regional indices; MSCI EM refers to the MSCI Emerging Markets index. PE = price to earnings ratio; EPS = earnings per share; NTM = next twelve months; LTM = last twelve months.
Follow the Flows: ETF Investors Leading the Way?
Over the past few weeks, the positive flow trend toward European equity exposures has accelerated. ETF investors bought European equities to the tune of $6.2 billion, levels we last saw in January 2018.
Figure 3: European Equity Region ETFs AUM and Flows – Monthly ($mn)
Source: State Street Global Advisors, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 25 May 2021. Flows are as of the date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter.
How to Play These Themes
Given the backdrop of continued economic pick-up and potentially attractive relative valuations in Europe, investors looking to add to their European exposures have more than 20 different shades of European equity exposures available from SPDR ETFs. This offering covers more than $7 billion of AUM from broad to focused strategies:
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., for the period 20-27 May 2021. Flows are as of date indicated and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. This information should not be considered a recommendation to invest in a particular sector or to buy or sell any security shown. It is not known whether the sectors or securities shown will be profitable in the future.
1 Source: State Street Global Advisors, 2021 full-year GDP forecasts as of March 2021. Forecasts are based on certain analyses and assumptions and there is no guarantee they will be realised.
Marketing Communication. General Access. For professional investor use only.
France: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Paris branch is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Paris Branch, is registered in France with company number RCS Nanterre 832 734 602 and whose office is at Immeuble Défense Plaza, 23-25 rue Delarivière-Lefoullon, 92064 Paris La Défense Cedex, France. T: (+33) 1 44 45 40 00. F: (+33) 1 44 45 41 92.
Germany: State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Authorised and regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (“BaFin”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Munich HRB 121381. T: +49 (0)89-55878-400. F: +49 (0)89-55878-440.
Israel: No action has been taken or will be taken in Israel that would permit a public offering of the Securities or distribution of this sales brochure to the public in Israel. This sales brochure has not been approved by the Israel Securities Authority (the ‘ISA’). Accordingly, the Securities shall only be sold in Israel to an investor of the type listed in the First Schedule to the Israeli Securities Law, 1978, which has confirmed in writing that it falls within one of the categories listed therein (accompanied by external confirmation where this is required under ISA guidelines), that it is aware of the implications of being considered such an investor and consents thereto, and further that the Securities are being purchased for its own account and not for the purpose of re-sale or distribution. This sales brochure may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person other than those to whom copies have been sent. Nothing in this sales brochure should be considered investment advice or investment marketing as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (“the Investment Advice Law”). Investors are encouraged to seek competent investment advice from a locally licensed investment advisor prior to making any investment. State Street is not licensed under the Investment Advice Law, nor does it carry the insurance as required of a licensee thereunder. This sales brochure does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities other than the Securities offered hereby, nor does it constitute an offer to sell to or solicitation of an offer to buy from any person or persons in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful, or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so, or to a person or persons to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent. The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300.
Italy: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano), is registered in Italy with company number 10495250960 - R.E.A. 2535585 and VAT number 10495250960 and whose office is at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milano, Italy. Telephone: +39 02 32066 100. Facsimile: +39 02 32066 155.
Netherlands: State Street Global Advisors Netherlands, Apollo Building, 7th floor Herikerbergweg 29 1101 CN Amsterdam, Netherlands. Telephone: 31 20 7181701. SSGA Netherlands is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2.
Switzerland: State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstr. 19, CH-8027 Zurich. Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht (“FINMA”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Zurich CHE-105.078.458. T: +41 (0)44 245 70 00. F: +41 (0)44 245 70 16.
United Kingdom: State Street Global Advisors Limited. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 2509928. VAT No. 5776591 81. Registered office: 20 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HJ. T: 020 3395 6000. F: 020 3395 6350.
Standard & Poor’s, S&P and SPDR are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.
All forms of investments carry risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Such activities may not be suitable for everyone.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.
This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Issuing Office: This document has been issued by State Street Global Advisors Ireland (“SSGA”), regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registerednumber 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. Fax: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com.
The views expressed in this material are the views of SPDR EMEA Strategy & Research through the period ending 27 May 2021 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate in value, so that when shares are sold or redeemed, they may be worth more or less than when they were purchased. Although shares may be bought or sold on an exchange through any brokerage account, shares are not individually redeemable from the fund. Investors may acquire shares and tender them for redemption through the fund in large aggregations known as “creation units.” Please see the fund’s prospectus for more details.
Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results.
SPDR ETFs is the exchange traded funds (“ETF”) platform of State Street Global Advisors and is comprised of funds that have been authorised by Central Bank of Ireland as open-ended UCITS investment companies.
The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU). This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
SPDR ETF ist die Plattform von State Street Global Advisors für Exchange-Traded Funds ("ETF") und besteht aus Fonds, die von den europäischen Aufsichtsbehörden als OGAW (offene Investmentgesellschaften) zugelassen wurden. Die ETFs dieser Plattform sind möglicherweise für Sie nicht geeignet oder verfügbar.
ETFs werden wie Aktien gehandelt und unterliegen dem Anlagerisiko. Ihr Marktwert fluktuiert und die Kurse können über oder unter dem Nettoinventarwert der ETFs notieren. Maklerkommissionen und ETF-Gebühren beeinträchtigen die Rendite.
Wechselkursschwankungen können sich negativ auf den Wert, Preis oder den Ertrag einer Anlage auswirken. Es gibt zudem keine Garantie dafür, dass ein ETF sein Anlageziel erreicht.
ANTEILE AN DEN FONDS DER SPDR® ETF SICAV, SSGA SPDR ETFS EUROPE I PLC UND SSGA SPDR ETFS EUROPE II PLC SIND EVENTUELL NICHT FU00DCR SIE ZUGU00C4NGLICH ODER GEEIGNET. DIE AUF DIESER SEITE ZUM AUSDRUCK GEBRACHTEN ANSICHTEN STELLEN KEINE ANLAGEBERATUNG DAR. IM ZWEIFEL SOLLTE UNABHÄNGIGER RAT EINGEHOLT WERDEN. WEDER DIE INFORMATIONEN NOCH DIE MEINUNGSÄUSSERUNGEN AUF DIESER SEITE STELLEN EINE AUFFORDERUNG ZUM KAUF ODER VERKAUF VON ANTEILEN DER FONDS ODER EINES SONSTIGEN FINANZINSTRUMENTES DAR.
Standard & Poor's®, S&P® et SPDR® sind eingetragene Warenzeichen der Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones ist ein eingetragenes Warenzeichen der Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); und diese Warenzeichen wurden zur Nutzung durch die S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) lizenziert und für bestimmte Zwecke an die State Street Corporation unterlizenziert. Die Finanzprodukte der State Street Corporation werden von SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, deren jeweiligen Konzerngesellschaften und Drittlizenzgebern nicht gefürdert, empfohlen, verkauft oder beworben, und keine dieser Parteien gibt Zusicherungen hinsichtlich der Ratsamkeit einer Anlage in dieses Produkt bzw. diese Produkte ab, noch haften sie im Zusammenhang damit, für Fehler, Auslassungen oder Unterbrechungen bei einem Index, oder in sonstiger Weise.
SPDR ETFs dürfen ausschliesslich in jenen Gerichtsbarkeiten angeboten bzw. verkauft werden, in denen sie im Einklang mit den geltenden Vorschriften zugelassen sind.
Informationen zu Mexiko
Diese Informationen stellen kein Marketing bzw. kein Angebot von Wertpapieren dar und sind auch nicht dazu bestimmt und nicht derart auszulegen. Die hierin genannten Fonds wurden und werden nicht nach dem mexikanischen Wertpapiermarktgesetz (Ley del Mercado de Valores) registriert und dürfen in den Vereinigten Mexikanischen Staaten nicht öffentlich angeboten oder verkauft werden. Offenlegungsunterlagen im Zusammenhang mit einem der oben aufgeführten Fonds dürfen in Mexiko nicht öffentlich vertrieben werden, und Anteile der Fonds dürfen nicht in Mexiko gehandelt werden.
Vor einer Anlage sollten Sie einen Prospekt und KIID für SPDR ETFs anfordern und lesen. Personen mit Domizil in Ländern, in denen SPDR ETFs für den Verkauf zugelassen sind, können weitere Informationen und den Prospekt/KIID, der die Eigenschaften, Kosten und Risiken der SPDR ETFs beschreibtverkoop op de website SPDRs und von ihrem lokalen SSGA-Büro abrufen.