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The effects of 2020 continue to influence cash management, about which we provide direction to investors on interest rates, monetary policy and treasury operations.
With the global economy enduring the worst recession since World War II, we swiftly assessed the impact of an economic sudden stop on credit profiles of banks in our coverage universe.
With the long wait over and the wind down begun, 2021 will be a critical year for transitioning away from LIBOR.
Our team reviews the secular framework, examining labor force dynamics, productivity, inflation and policy orientation providing a foundation for structural portfolio allocations.
Despite 2020’s tragedies, there were positive developments in the cash world. Overnight we reinvented the way we work with the ability to pivot and reimagine how cash is managed.
As we endure policy rates near or below zero for the medium term, and possibly longer, we expect central banks resorting to quantitative easing to conduct monetary policy.
Cash managers need to be proactive to preserve principal and earn yield, especially with policy interest rates so low. We explain strategies and investment vehicles that seek greater return while managing risk and liquidity.
As financial markets tumbled at the onset of the pandemic, fear and a precipitous decline in economic activity unleashed a dash for cash. Consideration needs to be given, ensuring money market funds continue to play their role.
Although both short-term and standard money market funds faced challenges during the March 2020 market crisis, the recent reforms, while imperfect, helped make LVNAV funds safer and more liquid.
From protests to forest fires, from a pandemic to economic disruptions, 2020 forced meaningful changes in the way companies, and treasuries in particular, work. In the face of all of this, cash remained remarkably strong. Looking ahead to 2021, we expect underlying factors — low interest rates, a continuing transition toward ESG, shifting policy frameworks and the shift away from LIBOR — to continue to shape the global cash market well into the new year.